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Implementation of ecological modeling as an effective management and investigation tool: Lake Kinneret as a case study

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  • Gal, G.
  • Hipsey, M.R.
  • Parparov, A.
  • Wagner, U.
  • Makler, V.
  • Zohary, T.

Abstract

The need for scientifically based management of lakes, as key water resources, requires the establishment of quantitative relationships between in-lake processes responsible for water quality (WQ) and the intensity of major management measures (MM, e.g. nutrient loading). In this paper, we estimate the impact of potential changes in nutrient loading on the Lake Kinneret ecosystem. Following validation of the model against a comprehensive dataset, we applied an approach that goes beyond scenario testing by linking the lake ecosystem model DYRESM–CAEDYM with a set of ecosystem variables included in a pre-assessed system of water quality indices. The emergent properties of the ecosystem predicted from the model simulations were also compared with lake data as a form of indirect validation of the model. Model output, in good agreement with lake data, indicated differential effects of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading on concentrations, and major in-lake fluxes, of TN and TP, and dynamics and algal community structure. Both model output and lake data indicated a strong relationship between nitrogen loading and in-lake TN values. This relationship is not apparent for phosphorus and only a weak relationship exists between phosphorus loading and in-lake TP. The modeling results, expressed in terms of water quality, allowed establishment of critical/threshold values for the nutrient loads. Implementation of the ecological modeling supplemented with the quantified set of WQ indices allowed us to take a step towards establishment of the association between permissible ranges for water quality and major management measures, i.e. towards sustainable management.

Suggested Citation

  • Gal, G. & Hipsey, M.R. & Parparov, A. & Wagner, U. & Makler, V. & Zohary, T., 2009. "Implementation of ecological modeling as an effective management and investigation tool: Lake Kinneret as a case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(13), pages 1697-1718.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:13:p:1697-1718
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.010
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    1. Kerimoglu, Onur & Jacquet, Stéphan & Vinçon-Leite, Brigitte & Lemaire, Bruno J. & Rimet, Frédéric & Soulignac, Frédéric & Trévisan, Dominique & Anneville, Orlane, 2017. "Modelling the plankton groups of the deep, peri-alpine Lake Bourget," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 415-433.
    2. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    3. Weinberger, Stefan & Vetter, Mark, 2012. "Using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM based on results of a regional climate model to estimate water temperature changes at Lake Ammersee," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 38-48.
    4. Marois, Darryl E. & Mitsch, William J., 2016. "Modeling phosphorus retention at low concentrations in Florida Everglades mesocosms," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 319(C), pages 42-62.
    5. Nakhaei, Nader & Boegman, Leon & Mehdizadeh, Mahyar & Loewen, Mark, 2021. "Three-dimensional biogeochemical modeling of eutrophication in Edmonton stormwater ponds," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    6. Wen-Cheng Liu & Hong-Ming Liu & Rita Sau-Wai Yam, 2021. "A Three-Dimensional Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Modeling to Assess the Planktonic Biomass in a Subalpine Lake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-22, November.
    7. Gilboa, Yael & Friedler, Eran & Gal, Gideon, 2009. "Adapting empirical equations to Lake Kinneret data by using three calibration methods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3291-3300.
    8. Snortheim, Craig A. & Hanson, Paul C. & McMahon, Katherine D. & Read, Jordan S. & Carey, Cayelan C. & Dugan, Hilary A., 2017. "Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 39-53.
    9. Li, Yu & Waite, Anya M. & Gal, Gideon & Hipsey, Matthew R., 2013. "An analysis of the relationship between phytoplankton internal stoichiometry and water column N:P ratios in a dynamic lake environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 196-213.
    10. Chung, S.W. & Imberger, J. & Hipsey, M.R. & Lee, H.S., 2014. "The influence of physical and physiological processes on the spatial heterogeneity of a Microcystis bloom in a stratified reservoir," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 289(C), pages 133-149.
    11. Zhang, Xiaoqing & Recknagel, Friedrich & Chen, Qiuwen & Cao, Hongqing & Li, Ruonan, 2015. "Spatially-explicit modelling and forecasting of cyanobacteria growth in Lake Taihu by evolutionary computation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 216-225.
    12. Ofir, E. & Heymans, J.J. & Shapiro, J. & Goren, M. & Spanier, E. & Gal, G., 2017. "Predicting the impact of Lake Biomanipulation based on food-web modeling—Lake Kinneret as a case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 14-24.
    13. Shimoda, Yuko & Arhonditsis, George B., 2016. "Phytoplankton functional type modelling: Running before we can walk? A critical evaluation of the current state of knowledge," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 29-43.
    14. Soares, L.M.V. & Calijuri, M.C., 2021. "Sensitivity and identifiability analyses of parameters for water quality modeling of subtropical reservoirs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    15. Rigosi, Anna & Rueda, Francisco J., 2012. "Propagation of uncertainty in ecological models of reservoirs: From physical to population dynamic predictions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 199-209.
    16. Fenocchi, Andrea & Rogora, Michela & Morabito, Giuseppe & Marchetto, Aldo & Sibilla, Stefano & Dresti, Claudia, 2019. "Applicability of a one-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 392(C), pages 38-51.

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