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A practical approach for assessing the sensitivity of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)

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  • White, Thomas
  • Luckai, Nancy
  • Larocque, Guy R.
  • Kurz, Werner A.
  • Smyth, Carolyn

Abstract

We present a case study approach to assessing the sensitivity of the dead organic matter sub-module of the operational-scale version of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to variation in model parameters controlling inputs to and throughput in this module. Parameters examined included those controlling biomass growth and turnover, dead organic matter decay and model initialization. Our approach is based on the use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis software packages that are freely available on the Internet and accessible to model users. We simulated four different landscapes, three with different species but the same rotation length and one using the same species with two different rotation lengths, to evaluate interactions between modelled scenarios and assumptions about parameter variability. We assessed the impacts of parameter variation on stocks and fluxes. The model was sensitive to variation in parameters controlling the foliage and fine root pathways, but the sensitivity differed depending on whether a softwood or hardwood landscape was being simulated. Our findings indicate that inferences drawn from sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of forest carbon models are specific to the landscapes and time horizons being modelled.

Suggested Citation

  • White, Thomas & Luckai, Nancy & Larocque, Guy R. & Kurz, Werner A. & Smyth, Carolyn, 2008. "A practical approach for assessing the sensitivity of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 373-382.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:219:y:2008:i:3:p:373-382
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Kurz & M. Apps, 2006. "Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 33-43, January.
    2. Werner Kurz & Sarah Beukema & Michael Apps, 1998. "Carbon Budget Implications of the Transition from Natural to Managed Disturbance Regimes in Forest Landscapes," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 405-421, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Podur, Justin & Wotton, Michael, 2010. "Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(9), pages 1301-1309.
    2. Smyth, C.E. & Kurz, W.A. & Trofymow, J.A., 2011. "Including the effects of water stress on decomposition in the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector CBM-CFS3," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1080-1091.
    3. Pommerening, Arne & LeMay, Valerie & Stoyan, Dietrich, 2011. "Model-based analysis of the influence of ecological processes on forest point pattern formation—A case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 666-678.
    4. Wang, Yonghe & Flannigan, Mike & Anderson, Kerry, 2010. "Correlations between forest fires in British Columbia, Canada, and sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 122-129.
    5. Pilli, Roberto & Grassi, Giacomo & Kurz, Werner A. & Smyth, Carolyn E. & Blujdea, Viorel, 2013. "Application of the CBM-CFS3 model to estimate Italy's forest carbon budget, 1995–2020," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 266(C), pages 144-171.
    6. Metsaranta, J.M. & Kurz, W.A., 2012. "Inter-annual variability of ecosystem production in boreal jack pine forests (1975–2004) estimated from tree-ring data using CBM-CFS3," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 111-123.
    7. Shaw, C.H. & Hilger, A.B. & Metsaranta, J. & Kurz, W.A. & Russo, G. & Eichel, F. & Stinson, G. & Smyth, C. & Filiatrault, M., 2014. "Evaluation of simulated estimates of forest ecosystem carbon stocks using ground plot data from Canada's National Forest Inventory," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 323-347.

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