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Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia

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  • Yu, Lei
  • Tyas, Suzanne L.
  • Snowdon, David A.
  • Kryscio, Richard J.

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effect of ignoring baseline when modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global impairment (GI) as intervening cognitive states. Transitions among states are modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain having three transient (intact cognition, MCI, and GI) and two competing absorbing states (death and dementia). Transition probabilities depend on two covariates, age and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-[epsilon]4 allele, through a multinomial logistic model with shared random effects. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a cohort of 678 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Lei & Tyas, Suzanne L. & Snowdon, David A. & Kryscio, Richard J., 2009. "Effects of ignoring baseline on modeling transitions from intact cognition to dementia," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(9), pages 3334-3343, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2009:i:9:p:3334-3343
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei, Shaoceng & Xu, Liou & Kryscio, Richard J., 2014. "Markov transition model to dementia with death as a competing event," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 78-88.

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