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Self-affine analysis and the universal crossover behavior of COVID-19 daily cases

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  • Murari, Thiago B.
  • Naziazeno, Ronaldo
  • Machado, Bruna A.S.
  • da Rocha Filho, Tarcisio M.
  • Pereira, Hernane B. de B.
  • Moret, Marcelo A.

Abstract

We examined the time series of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) cases and deaths using the detrended fluctuation analysis method. Understanding the intricate dynamics of COVID-19 transmission is essential for developing effective strategies to mitigate the impact of this disease. Long-range correlations were investigated, which could provide valuable insights into the patterns and mechanisms of COVID-19 transmission. The findings revealed a remarkable crossover phenomenon in the root-mean-square fluctuation, F(n), of the time series of COVID-19 cases. The crossover for daily cases of COVID-19 occurs at approximately two-week scales, indicating a transition from persistent to subdiffusive behavior in the spread of the disease. The observed crossover and the corresponding scale exponents α provide valuable insights into the dynamic behavior of COVID-19 over time. This highlights the importance of considering different time scales when analyzing the spread of the virus and could be useful in developing targeted interventions and control measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Murari, Thiago B. & Naziazeno, Ronaldo & Machado, Bruna A.S. & da Rocha Filho, Tarcisio M. & Pereira, Hernane B. de B. & Moret, Marcelo A., 2025. "Self-affine analysis and the universal crossover behavior of COVID-19 daily cases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s096007792500075x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    COVID-19; DFA; Crossover; Time series;
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