IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v161y2022ics0960077922005112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the multifractal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Tsvetkov, V.P.
  • Mikheev, S.A.
  • Tsvetkov, I.V.
  • Derbov, V.L.
  • Gusev, A.A.
  • Vinitsky, S.I.

Abstract

To describe the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose to use a mathematical model of multifractal dynamics, which is alternative to other models and free of their shortcomings. It is based on the fractal properties of pandemics only and allows describing their time behavior using no hypotheses and assumptions about the structure of the disease process. The model is applied to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic from day 1 to day 699 from the beginning of the pandemic. The calculated parameters of the model accurately determine the parameters of the trend and the large jump in daily diseases in this time interval. Within the framework of this model and finite-difference parametric nonlinear equations of the reduced SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model, the fractal dimensions of various segments of daily incidence in the world and variations in the main reproduction number of COVID-19 were calculated based on the data of COVID-19 world statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsvetkov, V.P. & Mikheev, S.A. & Tsvetkov, I.V. & Derbov, V.L. & Gusev, A.A. & Vinitsky, S.I., 2022. "Modeling the multifractal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:161:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922005112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077922005112
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112301?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2021. "Projections and fractional dynamics of COVID-19 with optimal control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Rihan, F.A. & Al-Mdallal, Q.M. & AlSakaji, H.J. & Hashish, A., 2019. "A fractional-order epidemic model with time-delay and nonlinear incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 97-105.
    3. Tsvetkov, V.P. & Mikheyev, S.A. & Tsvetkov, I.V., 2018. "Fractal phase space and fractal entropy of instantaneous cardiac rhythm," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 71-76.
    4. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Abboubakar, Hamadjam & Kumar, Pushpendra, 2020. "Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Correia, J.P. & de Lima, M.M.F. & Silva, R. & Anselmo, D.H.A.L. & Vasconcelos, M.S. & Viswanathan, G.M., 2023. "Multifractal analysis of coronavirus sequences," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat & Murillo-Arcila, Marina, 2021. "A complex fractional mathematical modeling for the love story of Layla and Majnun," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Chaharborj, Sarkhosh Seddighi & Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Feng, Koo Lee & Chaharborj, Shahriar Seddighi & Phang, Pei See, 2022. "Controlling COVID-19 transmission with isolation of influential nodes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Chatterjee, Amar Nath & Ahmad, Bashir, 2021. "A fractional-order differential equation model of COVID-19 infection of epithelial cells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Kumar, Pushpendra & Govindaraj, V. & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2022. "A novel mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of tooth cavity in the human population," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat & Yusuf, Abdullahi & Kumar, Sunil, 2021. "Fractional time-delay mathematical modeling of Oncolytic Virotherapy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Atangana, Abdon, 2022. "Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19: A study of new variant Omicron," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    7. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Ariful Kabir, K.M., 2022. "Modeling the epidemic control measures in overcoming COVID-19 outbreaks: A fractional-order derivative approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    8. Khan, Hasib & Ibrahim, Muhammad & Abdel-Aty, Abdel-Haleem & Khashan, M. Motawi & Khan, Farhat Ali & Khan, Aziz, 2021. "A fractional order Covid-19 epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler kernel," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon & Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2021. "Projections and fractional dynamics of COVID-19 with optimal control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Ruiqing Shi & Ting Lu & Cuihong Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Analysis of a Fractional-Order Model for Hepatitis B Virus with Holling II Functional Response," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-13, August.
    11. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Kabir, K.M. Ariful, 2022. "Dynamic analysis of mean-field and fractional-order epidemic vaccination strategies by evolutionary game approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Abboubakar, Hamadjam & Kombou, Lausaire Kemayou & Koko, Adamou Dang & Fouda, Henri Paul Ekobena & Kumar, Anoop, 2021. "Projections and fractional dynamics of the typhoid fever: A case study of Mbandjock in the Centre Region of Cameroon," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Ihtisham Ul Haq & Numan Ullah & Nigar Ali & Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar, 2022. "A New Mathematical Model of COVID-19 with Quarantine and Vaccination," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, December.
    14. Ardak Kashkynbayev & Fathalla A. Rihan, 2021. "Dynamics of Fractional-Order Epidemic Models with General Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Time-Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Jiraporn Lamwong & Napasool Wongvanich & I-Ming Tang & Puntani Pongsumpun, 2023. "Optimal Control Strategy of a Mathematical Model for the Fifth Wave of COVID-19 Outbreak (Omicron) in Thailand," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, December.
    16. Du, Feifei & Lu, Jun-Guo, 2021. "New approach to finite-time stability for fractional-order BAM neural networks with discrete and distributed delays," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Moualkia, Seyfeddine, 2023. "Mathematical analysis of new variant Omicron model driven by Lévy noise and with variable-order fractional derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Kumar, Pushpendra & Erturk, Vedat Suat, 2021. "Environmental persistence influences infection dynamics for a butterfly pathogen via new generalised Caputo type fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Kim, Sangkwon & Kim, Junseok, 2021. "Robust and accurate construction of the local volatility surface using the Black–Scholes equation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    20. Alberto Olivares & Ernesto Staffetti, 2021. "Optimal Control Applied to Vaccination and Testing Policies for COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-22, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:161:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922005112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.