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Prediction and analysis of COVID-19 positive cases using deep learning models: A descriptive case study of India

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  • Arora, Parul
  • Kumar, Himanshu
  • Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan

Abstract

In this paper, Deep Learning-based models are used for predicting the number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) positive reported cases for 32 states and union territories of India. Recurrent neural network (RNN) based long-short term memory (LSTM) variants such as Deep LSTM, Convolutional LSTM and Bi-directional LSTM are applied on Indian dataset to predict the number of positive cases. LSTM model with minimum error is chosen for predicting daily and weekly cases. It is observed that the proposed method yields high accuracy for short term prediction with error less than 3% for daily predictions and less than 8% for weekly predictions. Indian states are categorised into different zones based on the spread of positive cases and daily growth rate for easy identification of novel coronavirus hot-spots. Preventive measures to reduce the spread in respective zones are also suggested. A website is created where the state-wise predictions are updated using the proposed model for authorities,researchers and planners. This study can be applied by other countries for predicting COVID-19 cases at the state or national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Arora, Parul & Kumar, Himanshu & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan, 2020. "Prediction and analysis of COVID-19 positive cases using deep learning models: A descriptive case study of India," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s096007792030415x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fanelli, Duccio & Piazza, Francesco, 2020. "Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Chimmula, Vinay Kumar Reddy & Zhang, Lei, 2020. "Time series forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada using LSTM networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
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    Cited by:

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    2. Essam A. Rashed & Akimasa Hirata, 2021. "One-Year Lesson: Machine Learning Prediction of COVID-19 Positive Cases with Meteorological Data and Mobility Estimate in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Shastri, Sourabh & Singh, Kuljeet & Kumar, Sachin & Kour, Paramjit & Mansotra, Vibhakar, 2020. "Time series forecasting of Covid-19 using deep learning models: India-USA comparative case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Srinka Basu & Sugata Sen, 2023. "COVID 19 Pandemic, Socio-Economic Behaviour and Infection Characteristics: An Inter-Country Predictive Study Using Deep Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 645-676, February.
    5. Jelena Musulin & Sandi Baressi Šegota & Daniel Štifanić & Ivan Lorencin & Nikola Anđelić & Tijana Šušteršič & Anđela Blagojević & Nenad Filipović & Tomislav Ćabov & Elitza Markova-Car, 2021. "Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Regression Methods in the Problem of COVID-19 Spread Prediction: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-39, April.
    6. Pawan Kumar Singh & Anushka Chouhan & Rajiv Kumar Bhatt & Ravi Kiran & Ansari Saleh Ahmar, 2022. "Implementation of the SutteARIMA method to predict short-term cases of stock market and COVID-19 pandemic in USA," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2023-2033, August.
    7. Ali, Furqan & Ullah, Farman & Khan, Junaid Iqbal & Khan, Jebran & Sardar, Abdul Wasay & Lee, Sungchang, 2023. "COVID-19 spread control policies based early dynamics forecasting using deep learning algorithm," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Ahed Abugabah & Farah Shahid, 2023. "Intelligent Health Care and Diseases Management System: Multi-Day-Ahead Predictions of COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Shruti Sharma & Yogesh Kumar Gupta & Abhinava K. Mishra, 2023. "Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Multivariate Data Using Deep Ensemble Learning Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(11), pages 1-23, May.
    10. Tayarani N., Mohammad-H., 2021. "Applications of artificial intelligence in battling against covid-19: A literature review," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Krzysztof Fiok, 2021. "Optimizing COVID-19 vaccine distribution across the United States using deterministic and stochastic recurrent neural networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Bagarello, F. & Gargano, F. & Roccati, F., 2020. "Modeling epidemics through ladder operators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Kalantari, Mahdi, 2021. "Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic using optimal singular spectrum analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Yong-Ju Jang & Min-Seung Kim & Chan-Ho Lee & Ji-Hye Choi & Jeong-Hee Lee & Sun-Hong Lee & Tae-Eung Sung, 2022. "A Novel Approach on Deep Learning—Based Decision Support System Applying Multiple Output LSTM-Autoencoder: Focusing on Identifying Variations by PHSMs’ Effect over COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-22, June.
    15. Abbasimehr, Hossein & Paki, Reza, 2021. "Prediction of COVID-19 confirmed cases combining deep learning methods and Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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