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Empirically testing the law of one price in an international commodity market: A rational expectations application to the natural rubber market

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  • Goodwin, Barry K.

Abstract

The Law of One Price (LOP) is an important ingredient in theories of international trade and exchange rate determination. An important shortcoming of the existing empirical literature is that parity is typically assumed to hold contemporaneously. This overlooks the fact that international commodity arbitrage takes place over tim~> <<8 well as across spatially separated markets. Recognizing this fact, we expect to see parity holding for expected prices. A model which incorporates the expectations of commodity arbitragers is constructed and used to test the LOP in the natural rubber market. Results indicate that the inclusion of expectations may be of value when considering the LOP.
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  • Goodwin, Barry K., 1990. "Empirically testing the law of one price in an international commodity market: A rational expectations application to the natural rubber market," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 165-177, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:4:y:1990:i:2:p:165-177
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    1. Richardson, J. David, 1978. "Some empirical evidence on commodity arbitrage and the law of one price," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-351, May.
    2. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    3. Crouhy-veyrac, Liliane & Crouhy, Michel & Melitz, Jacques, 1982. "More about the law of one price," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 325-344.
    4. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132-132.
    5. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
    6. A. Protopapadakis, Aris & R. Stoll, Hans, 1986. "The Law of One Price in international commodity markets: A reformulation and some formal tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 335-360, September.
    7. Protopapadakis, Aris & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1431-1455, December.
    8. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    9. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-948, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohanty, Samarendu & Peterson, E. Wesley F. & Smith, Darnell B., 1998. "Fractional Conintegration And The False Rejection Of The Law Of One Price In International Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(02), December.
    2. Phillips, Llad & Pippenger, John, 2005. "Some Pitfalls in Testing the Law of One Price in Commodity Markets," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt92b16177, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    3. Mohanty, Samarendu & Peterson, E. Wesley F. & Smith, Darnell B., 1998. "Price Integration In Mercosur Countries: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20954, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Brown, A. Blake, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and tariffs in Greek-US tobacco trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 269-277, December.

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