Impact of eliminating government interventions on China's rice sector
China's economy has undergone fundamental changes since 1978. Agriculture, industry and services are being transformed into market economies. Marketing and domestic trade have also been reformed to take into account regional comparative advantages. The government, however, still controls input supply and output procurement to some extent. China is currently negotiating with the GATT in regard to gaining membership. Conditions for China's reentering the GATT are to eliminate the government interventions on domestic production and consumption, and international trade. This may affect China's comparative advantages in international markets, and therefore may result in changes in the structure of imports and exports. Will China continue to export rice or will it start to import rice under free trade, and if China continues to export, how much will China export? This paper attempts to model the potential effects of eliminating all government interventions on China's rice sector. We construct a rice industry model to facilitate our analysis. The model has three components, i.e., supply, demand, and price linkages. The estimated results are consistent with theory and are evaluated using several techniques. Results from model validation indicate that both static and dynamic models are reasonable and can be used to simulate effects of various government policies. Simulations are conducted to project China's rice economy to the year 2000. Two scenarios are compared: (1) continued current policy and (2) elimination of all government interventions. Eliminating all government interventions would increase production, stocks, and exports. Domestic consumption would decline due to the higher domestic prices from eliminating government subsidies on rice consumption. China would export more than 1.6 million metric tonnes of milled rice if there were no government interventions in the year 2000.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Huang, Jikun & David, Cristina C., 1993.
"Demand for cereal grains in Asia: The effect of urbanization,"
Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 107-124, February.
- Huang, Jikun & David, Cristina C., 1993. "Demand for cereal grains in Asia: the effect of urbanization," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(2), February.
- Anderson, Kym, 1983. "Economic Growth, Comparative Advantage and Agricultural Trade of Pacific Rim Countries," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(03), December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:11:y:1994:i:1:p:71-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.