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Some Evidence on the Efficiency of the Forward Market for Foreign Exchange from Monte-Carlo Experiments

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  • Zietz, Joachim

Abstract

A Monte Carlo approach is used to provide new insights into tests of the forward foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis. A whole range of alternative hypotheses regarding price determination in the forward market is examined for the $/DM case, including different expectations schemes, a risk premium model derived from international asset pricing theory, and the novel idea that the empirical evidence on the forward foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis is the result of intervention by monetary authorities. The latter hypothesis as well as the hypothesis that expectations are formed in a static manner rather than rational appear to work the best. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Zietz, Joachim, 1995. "Some Evidence on the Efficiency of the Forward Market for Foreign Exchange from Monte-Carlo Experiments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1471-1487, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:105:y:1995:i:433:p:1471-87
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    Cited by:

    1. Buiter, Willem, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal currency areas: why does the exchange rate regime matter? (with an application to UK membership in EMU)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20178, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Caporale, Tony, 1998. "The impact of monetary regime changes: Some exchange rate evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 85-94, March.
    4. Nelson C. Mark & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Risk, Policy Rules, and Noise: Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-041/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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