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Corona-Pandemie und gesunkene Ölpreise setzen Golfstaaten unter Druck

Author

Listed:
  • Dawud Ansari
  • Hella Engerer

Abstract

Die Corona-Krise trifft die Golfstaaten auf besondere Weise. Neben den direkten Folgen hat die Pandemie die Nachfrage nach der wichtigsten Einnahmequelle einbrechen lassen, dem Erdöl. Der ohnehin durch den jüngsten Preiskrieg zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Russland gedrückte Ölpreis stürzte im Frühjahr ins Bodenlose. Auch wenn er sich danach wieder leicht erholte, ist keine Entspannung in Sicht: Eine Marktsimulation des DIW Berlin untersucht die weitere Entwicklung des Ölpreises und zeigt ein deutliches Risiko für einen kurzfristig anhaltenden Abwärtstrend. Dadurch dürften die Exporterlöse der Golf-Anrainer weiter geschmälert werden. Die finanziellen Spielräume der Länder werden enger, auch durch die pandemiebedingten Mehrausgaben. Insgesamt besteht die Gefahr, dass langfristige Herausforderungen für die Region wie Diversifizierung und der Umgang mit einer globalen Energiewende nicht angegangen werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawud Ansari & Hella Engerer, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie und gesunkene Ölpreise setzen Golfstaaten unter Druck," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 87(48), pages 881-888.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:87-48-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; GCC; Covid-19; diversification; Saudi Arabia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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