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Deutsch-chinesische Wirtschaftsbeziehungen: Chancen und Risiken für Deutschland

Listed author(s):
  • Georg Erber

The People's Republic of China has become over the past years an increasingly important trading partner for Germany. In particular after the global recession and financial crisis in 2008 China has been a major pillar of the German industry exports: German companies were benefitting more than others in Europe from the huge increase of the Chinese import demand. However the dynamic of the Chinese economy has since then slowed down. After two-digit growth rates in the past years the new Chinese government set her aim to stabilize the Chinese economy at 7.5 percent annual growth. The German export growth rates will therefore decelerate compared to the past years. Additionally the future growth of the Chinese economy should according to plan of the new government depend more on domestic demand and domestic consumption than before. This will have accordingly a negative impact on the German investment goods industry. Furthermore Chinese imports from Germany will decelerate when China begins to produce more and more cars and machinery at home. Die Volksrepublik China hat sich in den zurückliegenden Jahren zu einem zunehmend wichtigen Handelspartner der Bundesrepublik Deutschland entwickelt. Insbesondere nach dem Ausbruch der weltweiten Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 erwies sich China als Konjunkturstütze der deutschen Wirtschaft: Diese profitierte überdurchschnittlich stark von der chinesischen Importnachfrage. Allerdings hat sich die Wachstumsdynamik Chinas zuletzt etwas verlangsamt. Nach ehemals zweistelligen Wachstumsraten versucht die neue chinesische Regierung, das Wachstum auf jährlich rund 7,5 Prozent zu stabilisieren. Die Zuwachsraten der deutschen Warenausfuhren nach China dürften in diesem Umfeld künftig etwas schwächer expandieren als noch in den vergangenen Jahren. Hinzu kommt, dass das chinesische Wirtschaftswachstum nach Plänen der Regierung künftig weniger vom Export und den Investitionen abhängen soll als vielmehr von der binnenwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und dem privaten Konsum. Dieser Wandel dürfte auch die auf Investitionsgüter spezialisierte deutsche Exportwirtschaft treffen. Hinzu käme eine wohl sinkende Importnachfrage, sobald China insbesondere Autos und Maschinen zunehmend im eigenen Land produziert.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal DIW Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 80 (2013)
Issue (Month): 41 ()
Pages: 9-15

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-41-3
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