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The Real-Time Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mancini, Michele
  • Conteduca, Francesco Paolo
  • Borin, Alessandro

Abstract

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the EU and most other advanced economies imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, intending to harm its production capabilities and hinder its economic activities by restricting its access to international trade and financial markets. This paper develops an empirical framework based on the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the war and the following sanctions on bilateral and sectoral exports to Russia almost in real time. The war and the following sanctions reduced aggregate exports to Russia by a third between March and December 2022, with the effects being stronger for sanctioning countries than for non-sanctioning ones, albeit with substantial country-level heterogeneity within each group. Exports to Russia in high-tech sectors – relatively more targeted by trade sanctions – have been disproportionately affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Mancini, Michele & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Borin, Alessandro, 2024. "The Real-Time Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 433-447, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:wotrrv:v:23:y:2024:i:4:p:433-447_1
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    Cited by:

    1. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The Limited Effectiveness of Sanctions on Russia: Modeling Loopholes and Workarounds," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325396, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Meyer, Klaus E. & Fang, Tony & Panibratov, Andrei Y. & Peng, Mike W. & Gaur, Ajai, 2023. "International business under sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    3. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Keiko ITO, 2025. "The Collateral Damage of US Export Control Regulations on Japanese Suppliers’ Exports to China," Discussion papers 25061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Committee, International Relations & Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo & de Almeida, Ana M. & Lovin, Horatiu, 2025. "Exploring EU-UK trade and investment four years after Brexit," Occasional Paper Series 379, European Central Bank.
    5. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simona Giglioli & Claire Giordano & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2025. "Trade fragmentation unveiled: five facts on the reconfiguration of global, US and EU trade," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 52(3), pages 535-557, September.
    6. Drapkin, I. & Simachev, Yu. & Fedyunina, A. & Pastukhova, P., 2025. "The impact of financial sanctions on countries' participation in global value chains: An assessment with the synthetic control method," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 151-172.
    7. Simola, Heli, 2023. "What the literature says about the effects of sanctions on Russia," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Nandnaba, Alfred Michel, 2025. "The dark political side of US economic sanctions: An overview of renewable energy production in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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