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Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition

Author

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  • Aldashev, Gani
  • Mastrobuoni, Giovanni

Abstract

In close elections, a sufficiently high share of invalid ballots—if driven by voter mistakes or electoral fraud—can jeopardize the electoral outcome. We study how the closeness of electoral race relates to the share of invalid ballots, under the traditional paper-ballot hand-counted voting technology. Using a large micro-level data set from the Italian parliamentary elections in 1994–2001, we find a strong robust negative relationship between the margin of victory of the leading candidate over the nearest rival and the share of invalid ballots. We argue that this relationship is not driven by voter mistakes, protest, or electoral fraud. The explanation that garners most support is that of rational allocation of effort by election officers and party representatives, with higher rates of detection of invalid ballots in close elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldashev, Gani & Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2019. "Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 289-310, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:7:y:2019:i:02:p:289-310_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Harka, Elona & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2022. "Studying more to vote less. Education and voter turnout in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Cantoni, Enrico & Gazzè, Ludovica & Schafer, Jerome, 2021. "Turnout in concurrent elections: Evidence from two quasi-experiments in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Tina Fransman, 2021. "Voting and protest tendencies associated with changes in service delivery," Working Papers 08/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    4. Francesco Armillei & Enrico Cavallotti, 2021. "Concurrent elections and voting behaviour: evidence from an Italian referendum," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21164, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2012. "The Causal Impact Of Closeness On Electoral Participation Exploiting The Italian Dual Ballot System," Working Papers 201203, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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