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The Sahm Rule And Predicting The Great Recession Across Oecd Countries

Author

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  • Blanchflower, David G.
  • Bryson, Alex

Abstract

We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchflower, David G. & Bryson, Alex, 2023. "The Sahm Rule And Predicting The Great Recession Across Oecd Countries," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 264, pages 8-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:264:y:2023:i::p:8-58_2
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    Cited by:

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    2. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson & Jackson Spurling, 2024. "The wage curve after the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 653-668, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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