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Bubbles, Crashes, And The Financial Cycle: The Impact Of Banking Regulation On Deep Recessions

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  • van der Hoog, Sander
  • Dawid, Herbert

Abstract

This paper explores how different credit market and banking regulations affect business fluctuations. Capital adequacy- and reserve requirements are analyzed for their effect on the risk of severe downturns. We develop an agent-based macroeconomic model in which financial contagion is transmitted through balance sheets in an endogenous firm-bank network, which incorporates firm bankruptcy and heterogeneity among banks to capture the fact that contagion effects are bank specific. Using concepts from the empirical literature to identify amplitude and duration of recessions and expansions, we show that more stringent liquidity regulations are best to dampen output fluctuations and prevent severe downturns. Under such regulations, both leverage along expansions and amplitude of recessions become smaller. More stringent capital requirements induce larger output fluctuations and lead to deeper, more fragile recessions. This indicates that the capital adequacy requirement is procyclical and therefore not advisable as a measure to prevent financial contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Hoog, Sander & Dawid, Herbert, 2019. "Bubbles, Crashes, And The Financial Cycle: The Impact Of Banking Regulation On Deep Recessions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1205-1246, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:03:p:1205-1246_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Arzu Uluc & J Doyne Farmer, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects and spillovers of macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 386-432.
    2. Rzeszutek, Marcin & Godin, Antoine & Szyszka, Adam & Augier, Stanislas, 2020. "Managerial overconfidence in initial public offering decisions and its impact on macrodynamics and financial stability: Analysis using an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Emanuele Ciola & Enrico Turco & Andrea Gurgone & Davide Bazzana & Sergio Vergalli & Francesco Menoncin, 2022. "Charging the macroeconomy with an energy sector: an agent-based model," Working Papers 2022.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Zhu, Jiahua & Bao, Te & Chia, Wai Mun, 2021. "Evolutionary selection of forecasting and quantity decision rules in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 363-404.
    6. Herbert Dawid & Jasper Hepp, 2022. "Distributional effects of technological regime changes: hysteresis, concentration and inequality dynamics," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 137-167, April.

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