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Heterogeneity in Beliefs and Volatility Tail Behavior

Author

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  • Bakshi, Gurdip
  • Madan, Dilip
  • Panayotov, George

Abstract

We propose a model of volatility tail behavior in which investors display aversion to both low-volatility and high-volatility states, and hence, the derived pricing kernel exhibits an increasing and decreasing region in the volatility dimension. The model features investors who have heterogeneity in beliefs about volatility outcomes and maximize their utility by choosing volatility-contingent cash flows. Our empirical examination suggests that the model is better suited to reproduce data features in the left tail of the volatility distribution, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2015. "Heterogeneity in Beliefs and Volatility Tail Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 1389-1414, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:50:y:2015:i:06:p:1389-1414_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle in forward looking data," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 253-276, October.
    2. Amengual, Dante & Xiu, Dacheng, 2018. "Resolution of policy uncertainty and sudden declines in volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 297-315.
    3. Bjørn Eraker & Aoxiang Yang, 2022. "The Price of Higher Order Catastrophe Insurance: The Case of VIX Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3289-3337, December.
    4. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "The economics of the financial market for volatility trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    6. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    7. Hongfei Tang & Xiaoqing Eleanor Xu, 2019. "Dissecting the tracking performance of regular and leveraged VIX ETPs," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 261-327, July.
    8. Cédric Gutierrez & Emmanuel Kemel, 2021. "Measuring natural source dependence," Working Papers hal-03330409, HAL.

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