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The Value Line Enigma: The Sum of Known Parts?

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  • Choi, James J.

Abstract

The investment advice encapsulated in the Value Line Investment Survey 's timeliness rankings is evaluated from 1965 to 1996 through time-series factor regressions, as well as by comparing recommendations to benchmark portfolios corresponding to their size, book-to-market, and momentum characteristics. In addition, recommendations that have experienced recent earnings surprises are purged to eliminate the effects of post-earnings announcement drift. There is evidence that Value Line recommendations exhibit performance beyond what is predicted by existing models of expected return. However, once transactions costs have been accounted for, it is doubtful profitable abnormal returns could have been realized.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, James J., 2000. "The Value Line Enigma: The Sum of Known Parts?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 485-498, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:35:y:2000:i:03:p:485-498_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Conover, C. Mitchell & Lancaster, Carol, 2008. "An examination of Value Line's long-term projections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 820-833, May.
    2. Lesmond, David A. & Schill, Michael J. & Zhou, Chunsheng, 2004. "The illusory nature of momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-380, February.
    3. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    4. Prombutr, Wikrom & Lockwood, Jimmy & Zhang, Ying & Le, Steven V., 2016. "Investor response to online value line rank changes: Foreign versus local stocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-26.

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