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Futures Prices on Yields, Forward Prices, and Implied Forward Prices from Term Structure

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  • Sundaresan, Suresh

Abstract

When futures contracts are settled with respect to underlying asset prices, received theory suggests that the differences between futures prices and implied forward prices (from the term structure) are strictly due to marking to market, ceteris paribus. Empirical evidence appears to indicate that such differences are small for contracts with short maturities. What happens when the futures contract settles to yields implied by future prices of underlying assets? The Eurodollar futures contract, which is the most actively traded futures contract in the United States, settles to yield as opposed to prices. This unique settlement feature is shown to imply that the implied forward prices from the LIBOR term structure should differ from the futures prices even in the absence of marking to market. Differences due to marking to market effect are small: they are shown to vary between 2 to 45 basis points (less than one-half percent of futures prices). On the other hand, differences between implied forward prices and futures prices are shown to be relatively large.

Suggested Citation

  • Sundaresan, Suresh, 1991. "Futures Prices on Yields, Forward Prices, and Implied Forward Prices from Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 409-424, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:26:y:1991:i:03:p:409-424_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Poitras, Geoffrey, 1998. "TED Tandems: Arbitrage Restrictions and the US Treasury Bill/Eurodollar Futures Spread," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 255-276.
    2. Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2000. "An empirical examination of the convexity bias in the pricing of interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 239-279, February.
    3. Sandra Peterson & Richard Stapleton, 2002. "The pricing of Bermudan-style options on correlated assets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 127-151, May.
    4. Sandra Peterson & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "The Valuation of American-Style Swaptions in a Two-factor Spot-Futures Model," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-078, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    5. Richard Heaney, 1995. "A Test of the Cost of Carry Relationship using 90†Day Bank Accepted Bills and the All Ordinaries Share Price Index," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(1), pages 75-104, June.
    6. Peterson, Sandra & Stapleton, Richard C. & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2003. "A Multifactor Spot Rate Model for the Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 847-880, December.
    7. Ruslan Bikbov & Mikhail Chernov, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility in Affine Models: Evidence from Eurodollar Futures and Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(8), pages 1292-1305, August.

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