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Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War


  • Cederman, Lars-Erik
  • Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede
  • Salehyan, Idean
  • Wucherpfennig, Julian


A series of studies has shown that civil wars are caused not only by factors inside countries, but also by effects operating across state borders. Whereas a first wave of quantitative studies demonstrated that such effects make the “closed-polity†assumption untenable, more recently researchers have identified particular causal mechanisms driving conflict. Despite these recent advances, a central puzzle remains unresolved, namely why ethnic groups that at least in theory could count on support from large transborder ethnic kin (TEK) groups often have remained surprisingly peaceful, such as the stranded Russian populations in the “near abroad.†We propose a theoretical framework that extends the analysis from the primary dyad between the incumbent and the challenger group by adding a secondary dyad that pits the incumbent against the TEK group. We postulate a curvilinear effect of the TEK group's relative size on conflict onset. Using a new data set on transnational ethnic links, we find that that the risk of conflict increases within the middle range of the size spectrum, consistent with our main hypothesis. This means that large TEK groups have a conflict-dampening effect, provided that they control their own state. Excluded TEK groups, however, are not associated with lower conflict probabilities.

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  • Cederman, Lars-Erik & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Salehyan, Idean & Wucherpfennig, Julian, 2013. "Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 389-410, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:67:y:2013:i:02:p:389-410_00

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    Cited by:

    1. Besley, Timothy & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2014. "The Legacy of Historical Conflict: Evidence from Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 319-336, May.
    2. Michael E. Flynn, 2020. "Before the dominos fall: Regional conflict, donor interests, and US foreign aid," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 39-57, January.
    3. Margarita Konaev & Kirstin J.H. Brathwaite, 2019. "Dangerous neighborhoods: State behavior and the spread of ethnic conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(5), pages 447-468, September.
    4. Paul R Hensel & Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, 2017. "From territorial claims to identity claims: The Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(2), pages 126-140, March.
    5. Hector Galindo‐Silva, 2020. "External threats, political turnover, and fiscal capacity," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 430-462, November.
    6. Fabrizio Carmignani & Parvinder Kler, 2017. "The spillover of war in time and space: exploring some open issues," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 273-288, January.

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