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On The Lack Of Power Of Omnibus Specification Tests

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  • Escanciano, J. Carlos

Abstract

Designed to have power against all alternatives, omnibus consistent tests are the primary econometric tools for testing the correct specification of parametric conditional means when there is no information about the possible alternative. The main purpose of this paper is to show that, contrary to what is generally believed, omnibus specification tests only have substantial local power against alternatives in a finite-dimensional space (usually unknown to the researcher). We call such a space the principal space . We characterize and estimate the principal space for Cramér–von Mises tests. These results are some of the by-products of a detailed theoretical power analysis carried out in the paper. This investigation focuses on the class of the so-called integrated consistent tests under possibly heteroskedastic time series. A Monte Carlo experiment examines the finite-sample properties of tests and estimators of preferred alternatives. Finally, an application of our theory to test the martingale difference hypothesis of some exchange rates provides new information on the rejection of omnibus tests and illustrates our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Escanciano, J. Carlos, 2009. "On The Lack Of Power Of Omnibus Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 162-194, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:25:y:2009:i:01:p:162-194_09
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristensen, Dennis, 2011. "Semi-nonparametric estimation and misspecification testing of diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 382-403, October.
    2. Hsu, Shih-Hsun & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2014. "Constructing smooth tests without estimating the eigenpairs of the limiting process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 71-79.
    3. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Mayoral, Silvia, 2010. "Data-driven smooth tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 1983-1998, August.
    4. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:3:p:349-358 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2010. "Specification tests of parametric dynamic conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 209-221, November.
    6. Zu, Yang & Boswijk, H. Peter, 2017. "Consistent nonparametric specification tests for stochastic volatility models based on the return distribution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 53-75.
    7. repec:hal:journl:peer-00732534 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zu, Y., 2015. "Consistent nonparametric specification tests for stochastic volatility models based on the return distribution," Working Papers 15/02, Department of Economics, City University London.
    9. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Song, Kyungchul, 2010. "Testing single-index restrictions with a focus on average derivatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 377-391, June.
    10. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Lobato, Ignacio N., 2009. "An automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 140-149, August.
    11. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Chuan Goh, 2010. "Specification Analysis of Structural Quantile Regression Models," Working Papers tecipa-415, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2017. "Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models With an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 349-358, July.

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