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Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered

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  • Clarke, Harold D.
  • Stewart, Marianne C.

Abstract

The argument that personal economic expectations drive support for British governing parties has received wide attention. This article employs aggregate data for the 1979–92 period to assess the effects of personal expectations, other subjective economic variables and evaluations of prime ministerial performance in rival party-support models. Analyses of competing models, including error correction specifications that take into account nonstationarity in the time series of interest, indicate that the personal expectations variants generally do very well, although they do not outperform one or more alternatives incorporating other types of economic evaluations. The error correction models show that the prime minister's approval ratings have significant short-term and long-term effects on governing party popularity.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Harold D. & Stewart, Marianne C., 1995. "Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 145-170, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:25:y:1995:i:02:p:145-170_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Harrison & Michael Marsh, 1998. "A re-examination of an Irish popularity function," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(3), pages 367-383, March.
    2. Jonathon M. Clegg, 2016. "Perception vs Reality: How Does The British Electorate Evaluate Economic Performance of Incumbent Governments In The Post War Period?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _143, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Norman Schofield, 2006. "Equilibria in the spatial stochastic model of voting with party activists," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 10(3), pages 183-203, December.
    4. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2020. "The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A cross-national investigation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878626, HAL.
    5. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2020. "The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A cross-national investigation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878626, HAL.
    6. Will Jennings & Peter John, 2009. "The Dynamics of Political Attention: Public Opinion and the Queen's Speech in the United Kingdom," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 838-854, October.

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