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The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96

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  • Hetherington, Marc J.

Abstract

Scholars have consistently demonstrated that no link exists between declining political trust and declining turnout, but they have paid less attention to the effect of trust on vote choice. In an era characterized by declining trust, the incumbent party has lost, and third parties have strongly contested, four of the last eight presidential elections. Such outcomes are historically anomalous. This study demonstrates that declining political trust affects vote choice, but the electoral beneficiary differs according to electoral context. In two-candidate races, politically distrustful voters support candidates from the nonincumbent major party. In races with three viable candidates, third-party alternatives benefit from declining political trust at the expense of both major parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Hetherington, Marc J., 1999. "The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(2), pages 311-326, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:93:y:1999:i:02:p:311-326_21
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    2. Matthew S. Dabros & Suzanne L. Parker & Mark W. Petersen, 2015. "Assessing the Stability of Trust in Government Across Election Periods," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 996-1011, December.
    3. Walkowitz, Gari & Weiss, Arne R., 2017. "“Read my lips! (but only if I was elected)!” Experimental evidence on the effects of electoral competition on promises, shirking and trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 348-367.
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    5. Niklas Potrafke & Felix Roesel, 2019. "A banana republic? The effects of inconsistencies in the counting of votes on voting behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 231-265, January.
    6. Anne Marie Jeannet, 2017. "Political Distrust in Europe: the Impact of Immigration and the Global Economic Crisis," Working Papers 102, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    7. Jason Wei Jian Ng & Santha Vaithilingam & Grace H. Y. Lee & Gary J. Rangel, 2022. "Life Satisfaction and Incumbent Voting: Examining the Mediating Effect of Trust in Government," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 2947-2967, August.
    8. Kim-Lee Tuxhorn & John W. D'Attoma & Sven Steinmo, 2019. "Trust in institutions: Narrowing the ideological gap over the federal budget," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 2(1).
    9. Geiguen Shin & Byong‐Kuen Jhee, 2021. "Better service delivery, more satisfied citizens? The mediating effects of local government management capacity in South Korea," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 42-67, January.
    10. Anne Marie Jeannet, 2017. "The Rational Public? Internal Migration and Collective Opinion about the European Union," Working Papers 103, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    11. Kuhika Gupta & Joseph T. Ripberger & Hank C. Jenkins‐Smith & Carol L. Silva, 2020. "Exploring Aggregate vs. Relative Public Trust in Administrative Agencies that Manage Spent Nuclear Fuel in the United States," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(4), pages 491-510, July.
    12. Samuel Mann & Nigel O’Leary & David Blackaby, 2022. "Sexual orientation, political trust, and same-sex relationship recognition policies: evidence from Europe," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 331-355, September.
    13. Kukreja, Rolly, 2024. "Does representation affect trust in political institutions?: Evidence from redistricting in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    14. Louis Fucilla, 2021. "Does the Bureaucracy Affect Trust in Government? Evidence from Aggregate Public Opinion," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(1), pages 69-82, January.
    15. Luis Rene Caceres, 2019. "Determinants of trust in government in Latin America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 329-351, Julio - S.
    16. Skali, Ahmed & Stadelmann, David & Torgler, Benno, 2021. "Trust in government in times of crisis: A quasi-experiment during the two world wars✰," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 277-289.

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