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Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and US Presidential Voting

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  • BACCINI, LEONARDO
  • WEYMOUTH, STEPHEN

Abstract

Globalization and automation have contributed to deindustrialization and the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs, yielding important electoral implications across advanced democracies. Coupling insights from economic voting and social identity theory, we consider how different groups in society may construe manufacturing job losses in contrasting ways. We argue that deindustrialization threatens dominant group status, leading some white voters in affected localities to favor candidates they believe will address economic distress and defend racial hierarchy. Examining three US presidential elections, we find white voters were more likely to vote for Republican challengers where manufacturing layoffs were high, whereas Black voters in hard-hit localities were more likely to vote for Democrats. In survey data, white respondents, in contrast to people of color, associated local manufacturing job losses with obstacles to individual upward mobility and with broader American economic decline. Group-based identities help explain divergent political reactions to common economic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Baccini, Leonardo & Weymouth, Stephen, 2021. "Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and US Presidential Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(2), pages 550-567, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:115:y:2021:i:2:p:550-567_14
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    Cited by:

    1. Apoorva Lal & Mac Lockhart & Yiqing Xu & Ziwen Zu, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on Over 60 Replicated Studies," Papers 2303.11399, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    2. Barry Watson & Stephen Law & Lars Osberg, 2022. "Are Populists Insecure About Themselves or About Their Country? Political Attitudes and Economic Perceptions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 667-705, January.
    3. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Terrero-Davila, Javier & Lee, Neil, 2023. "Left-behind versus unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the USA and Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118537, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & König, Philipp J., 2023. "Leaping into the dark: A model of policy gambles," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 457-476.
    5. Ferrara, Federico, 2023. "Why does import competition favor republicans? Localized trade shocks and cultural backlash in the US," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111961, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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