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The Residential Real Estate Market in China: Assessment and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Ding Ding

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Xiaoyu Huang

    (PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University)

  • Tao Jin

    (PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University
    Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Tsinghua University)

  • Waikei Raphael Lam

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond "fundamental" levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macroprudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macro-prudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding Ding & Xiaoyu Huang & Tao Jin & Waikei Raphael Lam, 2017. "The Residential Real Estate Market in China: Assessment and Policy Implications," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(2), pages 411-442, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:2:ding:huang
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chao Jin, 2018. "What Drives House Building The collateral effect with evidence from China," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-1.
    2. Xuefang Liu & W. Robert J. Alexander & Sajid Anwar, 2018. "Bank Runs in China: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 17(1), pages 15-30, June.
    3. Shengqin Zheng & Ye Cheng & Yingjie Ju, 2019. "Understanding the Intention and Behavior of Renting Houses among the Young Generation: Evidence from Jinan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Chang, Yuk Ying & Anderson, Hamish & Shi, Song, 2018. "China and international housing price growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 294-312.
    5. Han, Yang & Zhang, Haotian & Zhao, Yong, 2021. "Structural evolution of real estate industry in China: 2002-2017," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 45-56.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China real estate market; Housing bubbles; Macro-prudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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