The Impact of the foreign exchange market on agricultural production in Colombia during the 2021–2024 period: the cases of corn and rice

Introduction: The Colombian agricultural sector exhibits high vulnerability to episodes of exchange rate volatility, making it necessary to analyze its impact on strategic crops such as corn and rice. Objective: To assess the incidence of the nominal and real foreign exchange market on agricultural production in Colombia during 2021–2024. Methodology: A mixed approach was applied, combining quantitative analysis through two robust linear regression models (annual data 2000–2024, with 2021–2024 as a conjunctural window) and qualitative assessment of structural factors of the sector. Results: The depreciation of the peso indirectly benefited rice production by making imports more expensive, while corn showed greater sensitivity due to its dependence on imported inputs and competition with foreign corn. Discussion: The exchange rate impact is heterogeneous, conditioned by the productive structure of each crop and consistent with the theoretical frameworks of Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity, affecting costs, competitiveness, and profitability. Conclusions: The incidence of the foreign exchange market depends on the productive structure and the degree of external exposure of each crop. Differentiated policies and long-term strategies are required to ensure sustainability and competitiveness of the Colombian agricultural sector.