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Modelo para el pronóstico del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Barrientos Marín, Jorge
  • Rodas, Edwin
  • Velilla, Esteban
  • Lopera, Mauricio

Abstract

Resumen: En este trabajo se investigan los factores que determinan el precio de la energía eléctrica en el mercado colombiano. También se lleva a cabo un ejercicio de pronóstico de largo plazo para los precios de la energía transados en la bolsa energética, para este propósito utilizamos técnicas de vectores de corrección de errores y el enfoque de redes neuronales. La conclusión más relevante es que dado el ambiente optimista que rodea la economía colombiana para los próximos anos, los precios de la energía en el largo plazo tendrán una tendencia al alzaAbstract: This paper investigates the factors that determine electric power prices in the Colombian market. In addition, we carry out a long-run forecasting analysis to pool-traded electric power prices by using Vector Error Correction estimation and neuronal networks. Given the optimistic atmosphere that surrounds the Colombian economy for the coming years, our conclusion is that long-run electric power prices will exhibit an upward trend

Suggested Citation

  • Barrientos Marín, Jorge & Rodas, Edwin & Velilla, Esteban & Lopera, Mauricio, 2012. "Modelo para el pronóstico del precio de la energía eléctrica en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:010682
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Barrientos Marín & Mónica Toro Martínez, 2016. "Sobre Los Fundamentales Del Precio De La Energía Eléctrica: Evidencia Empírica Para Colombia," Grupo Microeconomía Aplicada 74, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía.
    2. Jorge Barrientos Marin & Elkin Tabares Orozco & Esteban Velilla, 2018. "Forecasting electricity price in Colombia: A comparison between Neural Network, ARMA process and Hybrid Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 97-106.
    3. Andr s Oviedo-G mez & Sandra Milena Londo o-Hern ndez & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2021. "Electricity Price Fundamentals in Hydrothermal Power Generation Markets Using Machine Learning and Quantile Regression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 66-77.
    4. Jorge Barrientos Marín & Mónica Toro Martínez, 2017. "Análisis de los fundamentales del precio de la energía eléctrica: evidencia empírica para Colombia," Revista de Economía del Caribe 17148, Universidad del Norte.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    precio; demanda; oferta; función de impulso-respuesta; vectores; redes neuronales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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