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El costo social de la incertidumbre macroeconómica. Venezuela, 1968-2004. Una perspectiva

Author

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  • Pena, Carlos José

Abstract

Resumen: la incertidumbre macroeconómica tiene efectos negativos sobre el desempeno económico. Especialmente, las decisiones de inversión se ven afectadas, implicando esto una postergación en dicha inversión y una reducción importante de la misma. Sin embargo, esta situación acarrea otros costos, como son los sociales. Así, un incremento en la incertidumbre genera una pérdida de bienestar, que está asociada a la caída de la inversión privada y la volatilidad del crecimiento económico. Este trabajo tiene como propósito aproximarse al estudio de la pérdida de bienestar que el incremento en la incertidumbre macroeconómica generó para Venezuela en el lapso 1968-2004. Para ello, se construyó un índice de incertidumbre macroeconómica, utilizando un conjunto de variables, entre las cuales están: inflación, tipo de cambio real, tasa de interés real, términos de intercambio, déficit/superávit fiscal primario no petrolero y la liquidez monetaria.

Suggested Citation

  • Pena, Carlos José, 2007. "El costo social de la incertidumbre macroeconómica. Venezuela, 1968-2004. Una perspectiva," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:005046
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    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/2322/1894
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    incertidumbre macroeconómica; pobreza; desempleo; pérdida de bienestar;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

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