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Sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia: una mirada hacia el mediano plazo

Author

Listed:
  • Lozano, Ignacio
  • Ramírez, Carolina
  • Guarín, Alexander

Abstract

Resumen: en este documento se evalúan los factores que determinaron la evolución del coeficiente de deuda pública a PIB en Colombia desde 1994 y se hacen pronósticos sobre su evolución en el mediano plazo (a 2011). El análisis se fundamenta en el principio de la Restricción Presupuestaria Intertemporal -RPI- para el gobierno general, el cual también se utiliza para hacer ejercicios de sensibilidad. Los resultados sobre las prospectivas indican que, bajo un escenario básico, la tendencia decreciente del coeficiente de deuda pública a PIB registrada en los últimos anos se puede revertir a partir de 2008, hasta ascender a 51% en 2011. De otro lado, los ejercicios de vulnerabilidad indican que un aumento de 80 puntos básicos en la tasa de interés, sobre el escenario básico, aumenta el coeficiente de deuda en 2 puntos del producto al final del período. Una caída de 1,3% sobre las proyecciones del crecimiento real, eleva el coeficiente en 9 puntos del producto; un incremento de 6% sobre los pronósticos de devaluación nominal incrementa el coeficiente en 5 puntos y un deterioro del balance primario en 0,8% del PIB, la eleva en 4 puntos del producto al final del período.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozano, Ignacio & Ramírez, Carolina & Guarín, Alexander, 2007. "Sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia: una mirada hacia el mediano plazo," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:005043
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    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/coyuntura/article/view/2325/1897
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Ignacio Lozano, 2011. "Caracterización macro de la política fiscal en Colombia y postura frente a la crisis global (2008-2009)," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    política fiscal; pronósticos y simulaciones; presupuesto; déficit y superávit; pronósticos de déficit y deuda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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