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It All Happens at Once: Understanding Electoral Behaviour in Second-Order Elections

Author

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  • Hermann Schmitt

    (MZES, Universität Mannheim, Germany / Faculty of Humanities, University of Manchester, UK)

  • Alberto Sanz

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, EDEM University Center, Spain / Department of Operations Management, IE University, Spain)

  • Daniela Braun

    (Geschwister-Scholl Institute for Political Science, LMU Munich, Germany)

  • Eftichia Teperoglou

    (Department of Political Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece)

Abstract

The second-order election (SOE) model as originally formulated by Reif and Schmitt (1980) suggests that, relative to the preceding first-order election result, turnout is lower in SOEs, government and big parties lose, and small and ideologically extreme parties win. These regularities are not static but dynamic and related to the first-order electoral cycle. These predictions of the SOE model have often been tested using aggregate data. The fact that they are based on individual-level hypotheses has received less attention. The main aim of this article is to restate the micro-level hypotheses for the SOE model and run a rigorous test for the 2004 and 2014 European elections. Using data from the European Election Studies voter surveys, our analysis reveals signs of sincere, but also strategic abstentions in European Parliament elections. Both strategic and sincere motivations are also leading to SOE defection. It all happens at once.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermann Schmitt & Alberto Sanz & Daniela Braun & Eftichia Teperoglou, 2020. "It All Happens at Once: Understanding Electoral Behaviour in Second-Order Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 6-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:cog:poango:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:6-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Daniela Braun & Markus Tausendpfund, 2020. "Electoral Behaviour in a European Union under Stress," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 28-40.
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    4. Braun, Daniela & Grande, Edgar, 2021. "Politicizing Europe in Elections to the European Parliament (1994–2019): The Crucial Role of Mainstream Parties," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 59(5), pages 1124-1141.
    5. Florence Ertel & Simon Donig & Markus Eckl & Sebastian Gassner & Daniel Göler & Malte Rehbein, 2024. "Using web archives for an explorative study of the web presence of German parties during the European election 2019," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 603-625, February.
    6. Daniela Braun & Constantin Schäfer, 2022. "Issues that mobilize Europe. The role of key policy issues for voter turnout in the 2019 European Parliament election," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(1), pages 120-140, March.
    7. Felix Lehmann, 2023. "Talking about Europe? Explaining the salience of the European Union in the plenaries of 17 national parliaments during 2006–2019," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(2), pages 370-389, June.
    8. Zoe Lefkofridi, 2020. "Competition in the European Arena: How the Rules of the Game Help Nationalists Gain," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 41-49.
    9. Daniela Braun & Martin Gross & Berthold Rittberger, 2020. "Political Behavior in the EU Multi-Level System," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-5.

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