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Monetary policy arithmetic: reconciling theory with evidence

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  • Maxim Nikitin
  • Steven Russell

Abstract

Empirical evidence indicates that, in countries with low inflation rates, a permanent decrease in inflation rate either has no impact on capital stock and output (superneutrality) or causes them to fall moderately. Existing budget arithmetic models of monetary policy cannot deliver superneutrality. In this paper, we conduct a budget arithmetic analysis of monetary policy using a money demand specification - money in the utility function - that is new to this literature. We find that one simple assumption about utility from money delivers superneutrality, while a more general assumption delivers departures from superneutrality in the direction consistent with the evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxim Nikitin & Steven Russell, 2006. "Monetary policy arithmetic: reconciling theory with evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 348-374, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:348-374
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Haslag, Joseph & Russell, Steven, 2005. "The role of money in two alternative models: When is the Friedman rule optimal, and why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1401-1433.
    2. Takemasa Oda, 2016. "Optimal Inflation Rate in a Life-Cycle Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Haslag, Joseph & Martin, Antoine, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 210-221, February.
    4. Sergey Pekarski, 2017. "Tight Money and the Sustainability of Public Debt," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 191-223, February.
    5. von Thadden, Leopold, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in an OLG model with non-superneutral money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 147-166.
    6. Reed, Robert R. & Ghossoub, Edgar A., 2012. "The effects of monetary policy at different stages of economic development," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 138-141.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical

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