IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Deutschlands Bevölkerung bis 2060: Das Geburtendefizit steigt dramatisch – Modellrechnungen auf der Basis der Bevölkerungsdaten von 2011

Listed author(s):
  • Eckart Bomsdorf
  • Jörg Winkelhausen
Registered author(s):

    Eckart Bomsdorf, Universität zu Köln, und Jörg Winkelhausen untersuchen die Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2060 und bauen auf den Daten der Bevölkerung zum 31. Dezember 2011 auf. Ihre Ergebnisse weisen dar­auf hin, dass – selbst bei einem langfristig deutlichen Bevölkerungsrückgang – die Brisanz nicht in erster Linie im Bevölkerungsrückgang, sondern vor allem in der Veränderung der Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung liegt. Auch die Verschiebung der Regelaltersgrenze in der Rentenversicherung auf 67 Jahre wird langfristig die demographisch induzierten Probleme nicht lösen. Ihrer Ansicht nach kann letztlich nur durch Zuwanderung der Rückgang der Bevölkerung und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials gedämpft und die Alterung der Gesellschaft begrenzt werden.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 65 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 19 (October)
    Pages: 26-41

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:19:p:26-41
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München

    Phone: +49-89-9224-0
    Fax: +49-89-985369
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    in new window

    1. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2010. "Die Lebenserwartung in Deutschland - ein Blick in die Zukunft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(22), pages 25-32, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:19:p:26-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.