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Wie verzerrte Arbeitsmarkterwartungen die Lohnlücke zwischen Ost­ und Westdeutschland beeinflussen

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  • Almut Balleer
  • Georg Duernecker
  • Susanne Forstner
  • Johannes Goensch

Abstract

Anhand von Umfragedaten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) analysieren wir subjektive und objektive Wahrscheinlichkeiten von Arbeitsmarktänderungen und zeigen, dass Arbeitnehmer*innen in Deutschland im Durchschnitt pessimistisch sind, innerhalb von zwei Jahren ihren Arbeitsplatz zu verlieren, während Arbeitslose im Durchschnitt optimistisch sind, innerhalb von zwei Jahren eine Stelle zu finden. Hierbei sind ostdeutsche Arbeitnehmer*innen und Arbeitslose pessimistischer als ihre westdeutschen Kolleg*innen. Wir zeigen einen negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Pessimismus und Löhnen sowie einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen Optimismus und Reservationslöhnen. In einer kontrafaktischen Analyse ergibt sich, dass die Unterschiede im Pessimismus zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland zwischen 3 und 5 Prozentpunkte des Lohnunterschiedes zwischen diesen beiden Regionen erklären können.

Suggested Citation

  • Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2023. "Wie verzerrte Arbeitsmarkterwartungen die Lohnlücke zwischen Ost­ und Westdeutschland beeinflussen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 30(03), pages 17-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:30:y:2023:i:03:p:17-22
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    1. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2023. "Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 10336, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jannik André Nauerth & Johan Pflanz, 2023. "Lohnlücke Ost-West – Ewige Disparität oder schiefer Vergleich?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 30(05), pages 08-13, October.

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