Red Flags for Educators: Lessons for Canada in the PISA Results

The Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) has deservedly become the benchmark for comparing national K-12 school systems. Since 2000, the OECD has, at three year intervals, organized PISA “rounds” to assess school system performance in member countries and in non-member partner countries, among upper-secondary students, age 15, in three core subjects. This Commentary summarizes major conclusions relevant to Canada from the latest round, in 2015. The policy recommendation of this Commentary is implicit: educators, administrators and parents should make use of PISA results as a guide to strategic priorities for education policy. Canada’s overall PISA score has consistently ranked well above the OECD average on the three subjects assessed (reading, mathematics, and science). In 2015, Canada ranked 10th in mathematics, 3rd in reading, 7th in science. Overall, our school system is faring well. However, PISA provides ample evidence to prompt some humility among Canadians. To be more specific: • Trends in mathematics: Since the inauguration of PISA, Canadian performance in mathematics has consistently declined from one round to the next, and the gap between 2003 and 2015 results is statistically significant. • Gender gaps: Canada is not faring well on this dimension; it is close to the OECD average. There exist in Canada modest gender gaps in mathematics and science that favour boys. A much larger gender gap in reading favours girls. • Mediocre outcomes for the six small provinces, for Manitoba and Saskatchewan in particular: From the base year for each subject to 2015, PISA score declines in all three subjects have been statistically significant for Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In all three subjects, the levels in these provinces are now below the benchmark year OECD average. There are reasons to speculate that the high proportion of Indigenous students in Manitoba and Saskatchewan is a key factor in explaining their PISA performance. Relative to these two Prairie provinces, outcomes are better in the four Atlantic provinces, but they, too, are not faring well. Each of the four has one 2015 score below 500; among the four, all scores are below the relevant national Canadian average.