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Seeding in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: When is a Higher Seed Better?

Author

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  • Sheldon H. Jacobson
  • Douglas M. King

Abstract

A number of methods have been proposed for predicting game winners in the National Collegiate Athletic Association's (NCAA) annual men's college basketball championship tournament. Since 1985, more than 70% of the teams in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds of the tournament have been high-seeded teams (i.e., teams assigned seeds of one, two, or three); a method that can accurately compare two such teams is often necessary to predict games in these rounds. This paper statistically analyzes tournaments from 1985 to 2009. A key finding is that there is an insignificant difference between the historical win percentages of high-seeded teams in each of the fourth, fifth, and sixth tournament rounds, which implies that choosing the higher seed to win games between these seeds does not provide accurate predictions in these rounds, and alternate predictors or methods should be sought. Implications on gambling point spreads are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheldon H. Jacobson & Douglas M. King, 2009. "Seeding in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: When is a Higher Seed Better?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 63-87, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:3:y:2009:i:2:p:63-87
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ira Horowitz, 2018. "Competitive Balance in the NBA Playoffs," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 63(2), pages 215-227, October.
    2. Jacobson, Sheldon H. & Nikolaev, Alexander G. & King, Douglas M. & Lee, Adrian J., 2011. "Seed distributions for the NCAA men's basketball tournament," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 719-724, December.
    3. Ilan Adler & Yang Cao & Richard Karp & Erol A. Peköz & Sheldon M. Ross, 2017. "Random Knockout Tournaments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1589-1596, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS TESTING; SPORTS PREDICTIONS; SPORTS BETTING; NCAA BASKETBALL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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