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Gauging the globe: the Bank's approach to nowcasting world GDP

Author

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  • Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene

    (Bank of England)

  • Sokol, Andrej

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Global activity is a key driver of UK GDP and a bellwether of prospects. Nowcasting global GDP growth, or predicting outturns ahead of their release, is therefore a key input into the Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment of the UK economic outlook. The Bank uses a suite of models to assess the momentum in the world economy in real time. A wide range of financial market, survey-based and high-frequency output indicators are used to inform the suite. The statistical suite of global nowcasting models tends to provide an accurate assessment of global activity growth, and significantly outperformed a simple model that did not benefit from the use of high-frequency data during the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene & Sokol, Andrej, 2018. "Gauging the globe: the Bank's approach to nowcasting world GDP," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 58(3), pages 21-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0242
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2018/2018-q3/gauging-the-globe-the-banks-approach-to-nowcasting-world-gdp
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Shamiri & Leanne Ngai & Peter Lake & Yin Shan & Amee McMillan & Therese Smith & Kishor Sharma, 2022. "Nowcasting the Australian Labour Market at Disaggregated Levels," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 389-404, September.
    2. Caroline Jardet & Baptiste Meunier, 2022. "Nowcasting world GDP growth with high‐frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1181-1200, September.
    3. Jack Fosten & Shaoni Nandi, 2023. "Nowcasting from cross‐sectionally dependent panels," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 898-919, September.

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