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Long‐run processes of geographical concentration and dispersion: Evidence from Germany

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  • Wolfgang Dauth
  • Michaela Fuchs
  • Anne Otto

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of geographical concentration in German manufacturing and service sectors over a long time period. Drawing on detailed plant data of 187 industries from 1980 to 2010, we corroborate previous studies and observe substantial concentrations in both sectors. However, we also document a secular trend of deconcentration over three decades, even in knowledge‐intensive industries. By constructing counterfactual distributions, we show that the underlying mechanisms differ across sectors. Dispersion of manufacturing industries is driven by closing or contracting plants within industrial agglomerations, while dispersion of the service sector is fostered by the creation of new plants. Este artículo analiza la evolución de la concentración geográfica en los sectores manufacturero y de servicios de Alemania durante un largo período de tiempo. A partir de datos detallados de planta de 187 industrias entre 1980 y 2010, se corroboran los estudios previos y se observan concentraciones sustanciales en ambos sectores. Sin embargo, también se documenta una tendencia secular de desconcentración a lo largo de tres décadas, incluso en industrias intensivas en conocimiento. Mediante la construcción de distribuciones contrafactuales, se muestra que los mecanismos subyacentes difieren entre sectores. La dispersión de las industrias manufactureras está impulsada por el cierre o la reducción de plantas dentro de las aglomeraciones industriales, mientras que la dispersión del sector servicios se ve favorecida por la creación de nuevas plantas. 本稿では、ドイツの製造業セクターとサービスセクターの地理的集中の進化の長期間にわたる分析を実施する。1980年から2010年までの187の産業における工場の詳細なデータを利用し、既存研究の裏付けをすると、両セクターにおいてかなりの集中が認められる。しかしながら、過去30年で、知識集約型産業においてさえ、長期的な分散のトレンドが認められる。反事実的な分布を構築することにより、基礎的なメカニズムがセクターによって異なることを示す。製造業の分散は、産業集積内における工場の閉鎖または工場業務の外注によって促進されているが、その一方で、サービス業の分散は新規工場の設立によって促進されている。

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Dauth & Michaela Fuchs & Anne Otto, 2018. "Long‐run processes of geographical concentration and dispersion: Evidence from Germany," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(3), pages 569-593, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:97:y:2018:i:3:p:569-593
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12271
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    2. Stockinger, Bastian, 2017. "The effect of broadband internet on establishments' employment growth: evidence from Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201719, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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