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Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests of Long‐run Relationships in Cointegrated Systems

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  • Stefano Fachin

Abstract

Hypothesis testing on cointegrating vectors based on the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are known to suffer from severe small sample size distortion. In this paper an alternative bootstrap procedure is proposed and evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment, finding that the Type I errors are close to the nominal signficance levels but power might be not entirely adequate. It is then shown that a combined test based on the outcomes of both the asymptotic and the bootstrap tests will have both correct size and low Type II error, therefore improving the currently available procedures.

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  • Stefano Fachin, 2000. "Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests of Long‐run Relationships in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 543-551, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:62:y:2000:i:4:p:543-551
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0084.00187
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    Cited by:

    1. Johansen, Soren, 2002. "A small sample correction for tests of hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 195-221, December.
    2. Alessandra Canepa & Raymond O'Brien, 2000. "The Size and Power of Bootstrap Tests for Linear Restrictions in Misspecified Cointegrating Relationships," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1807, Econometric Society.
    3. Alain W. HECQ, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Latin America: A 2-step vs an Iterative Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 258, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Papaikonomou, Dimitrios & Pires, Jacinta, 2006. "Are US output expectations unbiased? A cointegrated VAR analysis in real time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 440-446, September.
    5. Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Improvement on the LR Test Statistic on the Cointegrating Relations in VAR Models: Bootstrap Methods and Applications," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202007, University of Turin.
    6. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek, 2019. "A Primer On Bootstrap Testing Of Hypotheses In Time Series Models: With An Application To Double Autoregressive Models," Discussion Papers 19-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Omtzigt Pieter & Fachin Stefano, 2002. "Bootstrapping and Bartlett corrections in the cointegrated VAR model," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0212, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    8. Aka, F.B. & Decaluwe, B., 1999. "Causality and Comovement Between Tax Rate and Budget Deficits: Further Evidence from Developing Countries," Papers 9911, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
    9. David H. Bernstein & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Asymptotic Theory for Cointegration Analysis When the Cointegration Rank Is Deficient," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
    10. Takamitsu Kurita, 2009. "A note on small-sample correction for hypothesis testing on cointegrating vectors: recursive Monte Carlo analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1588-1595.
    11. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2010. "Effects of a signal-to-noise ratio on finite sample inference for cointegrating vectors," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2033-2039.
    12. Gunnar Bårdsen & Luca Fanelli, 2015. "Frequentist Evaluation of Small DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 307-322, July.
    13. Eriksson , Åsa, 2004. "Testing Structural Hypotheses on Cointegration Vectors: A Monte Carlo Study," Working Papers 2004:29, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    14. Yu, Philip L.H. & Lu, Renjie, 2017. "Cointegrated market-neutral strategy for basket trading," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 112-124.
    15. Sanidas, Elias & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2006. "The Consequences of Trade Liberalisation on the Australian Passenger Motor Vehicle Industry," Economics Working Papers wp06-01, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. Canepa, Alessandra, 2006. "Small sample corrections for linear restrictions on cointegrating vectors: A Monte Carlo comparison," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 330-336, June.

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