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Reinsurance and Systemic Risk: The Impact of Reinsurer Downgrading on Property–Casualty Insurers

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  • Sojung Carol Park
  • Xiaoying Xie

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> This article analyzes the interconnectedness between reinsurers and U.S. property–casualty (P/C) insurers and presents the first detailed examination on the likely impact of major global reinsurer insolvency on the U.S. P/C insurance industry, in order to illustrate the potential systemic risk caused by the interconnectedness of the insurance sector through reinsurance. We find that the likelihood of a primary insurer's downgrade increases with its reinsurance default risk exposure from downgraded reinsurers. Counterparty primary insurers' stocks also react negatively to their reinsurers' downgrades. The negative effects also spill over to insurers that are not directly exposed to the credit risk of downgraded reinsurers. Despite the close interconnectedness, worst-case scenario analyses show that the likelihood of systemic risk caused by reinsurance transactions is relatively small for the U.S. P/C insurance industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Sojung Carol Park & Xiaoying Xie, 2014. "Reinsurance and Systemic Risk: The Impact of Reinsurer Downgrading on Property–Casualty Insurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 587-622, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:81:y:2014:i:3:p:587-622
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    Cited by:

    1. Torsten Heinrich & Juan Sabuco & J. Doyne Farmer, 2022. "A simulation of the insurance industry: the problem of risk model homogeneity," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 535-576, April.
    2. Kanno, Masayasu, 2016. "The network structure and systemic risk in the global non-life insurance market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 38-53.
    3. Hua Chen & J. David Cummins & Tao Sun & Mary A. Weiss, 2020. "The Reinsurance Network Among U.S. Property–Casualty Insurers: Microstructure, Insolvency Risk, and Contagion," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 253-284, June.
    4. Matt Davison & Darrell Leadbetter & Bin Lu & Jane Voll, 2016. "Are Counterparty Arrangements in Reinsurance a Threat to Financial Stability?," Staff Working Papers 16-39, Bank of Canada.
    5. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    6. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Xun, Li, 2022. "Insurance risk analysis of financial networks vulnerable to a shock," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 756-771.
    7. French, Andrea & Vital, Mathieu & Minot, Dean, 2015. "Insurance and financial stability," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(3), pages 242-258.
    8. Alejandro Drexler & Richard Rosen, 2022. "Exposure to catastrophe risk and use of reinsurance: an empirical evaluation for the U.S," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(1), pages 103-124, January.
    9. Biener, Christian & Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo, 2017. "The structure of the global reinsurance market: An analysis of efficiency, scale, and scope," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 213-229.
    10. Alberto Dreassi & Stefano Miani & Andrea Paltrinieri & Alex Sclip, 2018. "Bank-Insurance Risk Spillovers: Evidence from Europe," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, January.
    11. Eckert, Christian & Gatzert, Nadine & Heidinger, Dinah, 2020. "Empirically assessing and modeling spillover effects from operational risk events in the insurance industry," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 72-83.
    12. Kubitza, Christian & Regele, Fabian, 2017. "Persistence of insurance activities and financial stability," ICIR Working Paper Series 30/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    13. Silvia Bressan, 2023. "Reinsurance and Sustainability: Evidence from International Insurers," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-8.
    14. Kasinger, Johannes & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2018. "Financial stability in the EU: A case for micro data transparency," SAFE Policy Letters 67, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    15. Biener, Christian & Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo, 2016. "The Roles of Industry Idiosyncrasy, Cost Efficiency, and Risk in Internationalization: Evidence from the Insurance Industry," Working Papers on Finance 1602, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    16. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia, 2017. "Recent Research Developments Affecting Nonlife Insurance—The CAS Risk Premium Project 2014 Update," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 63-77, March.
    17. Thomas R. Berry-Stölzle & Meghan Irene Esson, 2024. "Capital issuances and premium growth in the property–liability insurance industry: evidence from the financial crisis and COVID-19 recession," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(1), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Aduloju Sunday Adekunle & Ajemunigbohun Sunday Stephen, 2017. "Reinsurance and Performance of the Ceding Companies: The Nigerian Insurance Industry Experience," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 31(1), pages 19-29, August.
    19. Anna Paulson & Richard Rosen, 2016. "The Life Insurance Industry and Systemic Risk: A Bond Market Perspective," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 155-174, October.
    20. Kotlicki, Artur & Austin, Andrea & Humphry, David & Burnett, Hanna & Ridgill, Philip & Smith, Sam, 2023. "Network analysis of the UK reinsurance market," Bank of England working papers 1000, Bank of England.

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