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Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

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  • Diana Weinhold
  • Eustaquio J. Reis

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross‐section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out‐of‐sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Weinhold & Eustaquio J. Reis, 2001. "Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 639-657, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:41:y:2001:i:4:p:639-657
    DOI: 10.1111/0022-4146.00236
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    Cited by:

    1. Weslem Faria & Alexandre Almeida, 2011. "Agricultural Expansion, Openness to Trade and Deforestation at the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1013, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Kovacs, Kent F., 2005. "Amount and Spatial Distribution of Public Open Space to Maximize the Net Benefits from Urban Recreation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19206, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    4. Munroe, Darla K. & Southworth, Jane & Tucker, Catherine M., 2002. "The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 355-369, November.
    5. Stungwa, Sanele & Daw, Olebogeng David, 2021. "Infrastructure development and population growth on economic growth in South Africa," MPRA Paper 110884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2011. "The Nexus between Improvements in Economic Freedom and Growth: Evidence from CEE Countries in Transition," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 133-168, September.
    7. Salvador Perez-Moreno, 2011. "Financial development and poverty in developing countries: a causal analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 57-80, August.
    8. Yanwei Zhang & Hualin Xie, 2019. "Interactive Relationship among Urban Expansion, Economic Development, and Population Growth since the Reform and Opening up in China: An Analysis Based on a Vector Error Correction Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-31, October.
    9. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2012. "Two deficits and economic growth: case of CEE countries in transition," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 12, pages 79-108.
    10. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "The nexus between economic freedom and growth: Evidence from CEE countries in transition," MPRA Paper 37434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Faria, Weslem & de Almeida, Alexandre, 2013. "Relationship between Openness to Trade and Deforestation: Empirical Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," TD NEREUS 3-2013, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    12. Salvador Pérez-Moreno, 2016. "Revisiting Growth-Poverty Relationship: A Medium-Term Causality Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 624-635, December.
    13. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2011. "The impact of regional disparities on economic growth," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 21(2), pages 17-43.
    14. Eric Delattre & Richard K. Moussa & Mareva Sabatier, 2019. "Health condition and job status interactions: econometric evidence of causality from a French longitudinal survey," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.

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