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Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

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  • Diana Weinhold
  • Eustaquio J. Reis

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa. Copyright 2001 Blackwell Publishers

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  • Diana Weinhold & Eustaquio J. Reis, 2001. "Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 639-657.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:41:y:2001:i:4:p:639-657
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    Cited by:

    1. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    2. Salvador Perez-Moreno, 2011. "Financial development and poverty in developing countries: a causal analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 57-80, August.
    3. Munroe, Darla K. & Southworth, Jane & Tucker, Catherine M., 2002. "The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 27(3), November.
    4. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2012. "Two deficits and economic growth: case of CEE countries in transition," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 12, pages 79-108.
    5. repec:bla:sajeco:v:84:y:2016:i:4:p:624-635 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2011. "The Nexus between Improvements in Economic Freedom and Growth: Evidence from CEE Countries in Transition," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(3), pages 133-168, September.
    7. Eric Delattre & Richard Moussa & Mareva Sabatier, 2015. "Health condition and job status interactions: Econometric evidence of causality from a French longitudinal survey," THEMA Working Papers 2015-19, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    8. Weslem Faria & Alexandre Almeida, 2011. "Agricultural Expansion, Openness to Trade and Deforestation at the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1013, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Kovacs, Kent F., 2005. "Amount and Spatial Distribution of Public Open Space to Maximize the Net Benefits from Urban Recreation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19206, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Munroe, Darla K. & Southworth, Jane & Tucker, Catherine M., 2002. "The dynamics of land-cover change in western Honduras: exploring spatial and temporal complexity," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 355-369, November.
    11. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "The nexus between economic freedom and growth: Evidence from CEE countries in transition," MPRA Paper 37434, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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