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Temporal pattern in number of staff on sick leave: the effect of downsizing

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  • Göran Kauermann
  • Renate Ortlieb

Abstract

Summary. The pattern of absenteeism in the downsizing process of companies is a topic in focus in economics and social science. A general question is whether employees who are frequently absent are more likely to be selected to be laid off or in contrast whether employees to be dismissed are more likely to be absent for the remaining time of their working contract. We pursue an empirical and microeconomic investigation of these theses. We analyse longitudinal data that were collected in a German company over several years. We fit a semiparametric transition model based on a mixture Poisson distribution for the days of absenteeism per month. Prediction intervals are considered and the primary focus is on the period of downsizing. The data reveal clear evidence for the hypothesis that employees who are to be laid off are more frequently absent before leaving the company. Interestingly, though, no clear evidence is seen that employees being selected to leave the company are those with a bad absenteeism profile.

Suggested Citation

  • Göran Kauermann & Renate Ortlieb, 2004. "Temporal pattern in number of staff on sick leave: the effect of downsizing," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 53(2), pages 355-367, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:53:y:2004:i:2:p:355-367
    DOI: 10.1046/j.1467-9876.2003.05193.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Fahr, René & Frick, Bernd, 2007. "On the Inverse Relationship between Unemployment and Absenteeism: Evidence from Natural Experiments and Worker Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 3171, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Georges Dionne & Benoit Dostie, 2007. "New Evidence on the Determinants of Absenteeism Using Linked Employer-Employee Data," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 61(1), pages 108-120, October.
    3. Dionne, Georges & Dostie, Benoit, 2005. "New evidence on the determinants of absenteeism using linked employer-employee," Working Papers 05-5, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    4. Jean-François Angers & Denise Desjardins & Georges Dionne & Benoit Dostie & François Guertin, 2007. "Poisson Models with Employer-Employee Unobserved Heterogeneity: An Application to Absence Data," Cahiers de recherche 07-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    5. Thomas Leoni, 2010. "Differences in Sick Leave Between Employed and Unemployed Workers. What Do They Tell Us About the Health Dimension of Unemployment?," WIFO Working Papers 372, WIFO.
    6. Dionne, Georges & Dostie, Benoit, 2008. "Correlated Poisson processes with unobserved Heterogeneity: Estimating the determinants of paid and unpaid leave," Working Papers 08-3, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.

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