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A Modified Logistic Model Applied to Human Populations

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  • Nigel Meade

Abstract

The use of the logistic curve for forecasting human populations considered by Leach is re‐examined. A modification of the use of the logistic curve is suggested, which changes the emphasis from fitting a logistic trend to providing a forecast logistic trend The assumption, used by Leach, that the variance of the additive disturbance term is constant is replaced by a more realistic supposition that the variance of the proportional disturbance is constant. The forecasting performance of the modified logistic model is shown to be superior to that of the model used by Leach.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Meade, 1988. "A Modified Logistic Model Applied to Human Populations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(3), pages 491-498, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:151:y:1988:i:3:p:491-498
    DOI: 10.2307/2982996
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    1. repec:bof:bofrdp:99_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Snellman, Jussi & Vesala, Jukka, 1999. "Forecasting the electronification of payments with learning curves: The case of Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/1999, Bank of Finland.
    4. Snellman, Jussi & Vesala, Jukka, 1999. "Forecasting the elecronification of payments with learning curves : The case of Finland," Research Discussion Papers 8/1999, Bank of Finland.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:99_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2014. "A simple selection test between the Gompertz and Logistic growth models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 98-105.
    7. Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
    8. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.

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