IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfnres/v25y2002i3p305-320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Keshab Shrestha
  • Sheng‐Syan Chen
  • Cheng‐few Lee

Abstract

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Keshab Shrestha & Sheng‐Syan Chen & Cheng‐few Lee, 2002. "Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 305-320, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:3:p:305-320
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-6803.t01-1-00020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6803.t01-1-00020
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-6803.t01-1-00020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D. Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1990. "A Modern Look At Asset Pricing and Short-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can common stocks provide a hedge against inflation? Evidence from African countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 91-100, August.
    2. K.R. Shanmugam & Biswa Swarup Misra, 2008. "Stock Returns-Inflation Relation in India," Finance Working Papers 22514, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:2:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Eric Kam & Paul Missios, 2003. "Wealth effects in a cash-in-advance economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-7.
    6. Kam, Eric, 2005. "A note on time preference and the Tobin Effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 127-132, October.
    7. Adel A. Al-Sharkas & Marwan Al-Zoubi, 2011. "Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco," Working Papers 653, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    2. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:3:p:305-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.