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An Exploration of Neo‐Austrian Theory Applied to Financial Markets

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  • Harald Benink
  • Peter Bossaerts

Abstract

We attempt to translate Neo‐Austrian ideas about the workings of financial markets, as originally advanced by F. A. Hayek, into the standard probabilistic language of modern finance. We focus on an apparent paradox, namely the insistence of Neo‐Austrians on order (i.e., stationarity) together with ever‐reemerging inefficiencies. The paper's findings have implications beyond Neo‐Austrian theory: They demonstrate how easy it is to reject market efficiency, but how much more difficult it is to discern the nature of the inefficiency. We illustrate our findings with price data from the U.S. Treasury bill market over the period 1962 to 1999. There is ample evidence that the price of a three‐month Treasury bill is not a random walk, yet the sign of the average price change is erratic, so that inference about the nature of the inefficiency is unreliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Benink & Peter Bossaerts, 2001. "An Exploration of Neo‐Austrian Theory Applied to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1011-1027, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:3:p:1011-1027
    DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00353
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    Cited by:

    1. Benink, H.A., 2001. "Financial Regulation: Emerging From The Shadows," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management EIA-2001-002-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    2. Shrestha, Keshab & Philip, Sheena & Peranginangin, Yessy, 2020. "Contributions of Crude Oil Exchange Traded Funds in Price Discovery Process," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 23(2), pages 393-407, November.
    3. Christopher R. Stephens & Harald A. Benink & José Luís Gordillo & Juan Pablo Pardo-Guerra, 2021. "A New Measure of Market Inefficiency," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Andreas Hoffmann & Björn Urbansky, 2015. "Policy Shifts and Financial Instability in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 455-469, August.
    5. Harald A. Benink & Jose Luis Gordillo & Juan Pablo Pardo & Christopher R. Stephens, 2004. "A Study of Neo-Austrian Economics using an Artificial Stock Market," Finance 0411038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2005. "Design Of Financial Systems: Towards A Synthesis Of Function And Structure," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: H Gifford Fong (ed.), The World Of Risk Management, chapter 1, pages 1-27, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Benink, Harald A. & Gordillo, José Luis & Pardo, Juan Pablo & Stephens, Christopher R., 2010. "Market efficiency and learning in an artificial stock market: A perspective from Neo-Austrian economics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 668-688, September.

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