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Ex Ante Bond Returns and the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob Boudoukh

    (Stern School of Business, New York University and the NBER,)

  • Matthew Richardson

    (Stern School of Business, New York University and the NBER,)

  • Tom Smith

    (Australian Graduate School of Management, University of New South Wales,)

  • Robert F. Whitelaw

    (Stern School of Business, New York University)

Abstract

We provide a formal test of the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH), that is, the monotonicity of ex ante term premiums, using nonparametric estimates that do not require a structural model for conditional expected returns. Although the point estimates of the term premiums are consistent with previous conclusions in the literature regarding violations of the LPH, the test statistics are generally insignificant, even when powerful conditioning information is used. These results illustrate the importance of correctly accounting for correlations across maturities and of formally testing the inequality restrictions implied by the LPH. Copyright The American Finance Association 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Ex Ante Bond Returns and the Liquidity Preference Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1153-1167, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:54:y:1999:i:3:p:1153-1167
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    2. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    3. Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "The world ex ante risk premium: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 967-999, December.
    4. Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Monotonicity in asset returns: New tests with applications to the term structure, the CAPM, and portfolio sorts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 605-625, December.
    5. Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
    6. Delgado, Miguel A. & Escanciano, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Distribution-free tests of stochastic monotonicity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 68-75.
    7. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Fixed income excess returns and time to maturity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 431-442.
    8. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    9. Berghaus, Betina & B├╝cher, Axel, 2014. "Nonparametric tests for tail monotonicity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 117-126.
    10. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Richard Stanton & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "A Multifactor, Nonlinear, Continuous-Time Model of Interest Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Alexius, Annika, 2004. "Far Out on the Yield Curve," Working Paper Series 2004:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    12. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Richard Stanton & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "A Multifactor, Nonlinear, Continuous-Time Model of Interest Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-042, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.

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