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The Looming Refugee Crisis in the EU: Right‐Wing Party Competition and Strategic Positioning

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  • James Floyd Downes
  • Matthew Loveless
  • Andrew Lam

Abstract

Despite a rise in the number of competitive far right parties leading up to the European refugee crisis, some centre right parties achieved or maintained electoral success. We argue that some centre right parties recognize the electoral opportunity for radical right parties to exploit the refugee crisis for electoral gains and strategically adopt hard‐line positions on immigration to maintain and even increase their electoral success. We test our theory of strategic positioning using data on party competition in national parliamentary elections across 28 EU member states at the start of the refugee crisis. Strategic positioning appears to be a particularly successful choice for centre right parties. The quantitative analysis is supported by case studies in Western Europe of Austria and The Netherlands. Whilst strategic positioning may produce short‐term electoral success, it also mainstreams radical immigration positions in contemporary European politics, with negative implications for liberal democracy in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • James Floyd Downes & Matthew Loveless & Andrew Lam, 2021. "The Looming Refugee Crisis in the EU: Right‐Wing Party Competition and Strategic Positioning," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(5), pages 1103-1123, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:59:y:2021:i:5:p:1103-1123
    DOI: 10.1111/jcms.13167
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    1. Meguid, Bonnie M., 2005. "Competition Between Unequals: The Role of Mainstream Party Strategy in Niche Party Success," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(3), pages 347-359, August.
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    3. Tim Bale & Christoffer Green-Pedersen & André Krouwel & Kurt Richard Luther & Nick Sitter, 2010. "If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them? Explaining Social Democratic Responses to the Challenge from the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58, pages 410-426, June.
    4. Therriault, Andrew, 2015. "Whose Issue Is It Anyway? A New Look at the Meaning and Measurement of Issue Ownership," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 929-938, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eddy SF Yeung, 2021. "Does immigration boost public Euroscepticism in European Union member states?," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(4), pages 631-654, December.

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