IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/istatr/v86y2018i3p442-468.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ranking Forecasts by Stochastic Error Distance, Information and Reliability Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Omid M. Ardakani
  • Nader Ebrahimi
  • Ehsan S. Soofi

Abstract

The stochastic error distance (SED) introduced by Diebold and Shin () ranks forecast models by divergence between distributions of the errors of the actual and perfect forecast models. The basic SED is defined by the variation distance and provides a representation of the mean absolute error, but by basing ranking on the entire error distribution and divergence, the SED moves beyond the traditional forecast evaluations. First, we establish connections between ranking forecast models by the SED, error entropy and some partial orderings of distributions. Then, we introduce the notion of excess error for forecast errors of magnitudes larger than a tolerance threshold and give the SED representation of the mean excess error (MEE). As a function of the threshold, the MEE is a local risk measure. With the distribution of the absolute error as a prior for the threshold, its Bayes risk is the entropy functional of the survival function, which is a known measure in the information theory and reliability. Notions and results are illustrated using various distributions for the error. The empirical versions of SED, MEE and its Bayes risk are compared with the mean squared error in ranking regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models for forecasting bond risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Omid M. Ardakani & Nader Ebrahimi & Ehsan S. Soofi, 2018. "Ranking Forecasts by Stochastic Error Distance, Information and Reliability Measures," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 86(3), pages 442-468, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:istatr:v:86:y:2018:i:3:p:442-468
    DOI: 10.1111/insr.12250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.12250
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/insr.12250?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asadi, Majid & Ebrahimi, Nader & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2018. "Optimal hazard models based on partial information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 723-733.
    2. Omid M. Ardakani, 2022. "Option pricing with maximum entropy densities: The inclusion of higher‐order moments," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1821-1836, October.
    3. Bajgiran, Amirsaman H. & Mardikoraem, Mahsa & Soofi, Ehsan S., 2021. "Maximum entropy distributions with quantile information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 196-209.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:istatr:v:86:y:2018:i:3:p:442-468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isiiinl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isiiinl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.