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The potential for material circularity and independence in the U.S. steel sector

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel R. Cooper
  • Nicole A. Ryan
  • Kyle Syndergaard
  • Yongxian Zhu

Abstract

Achieving a U.S. circular economy would reduce environmental impacts and increase material independence. This article calculates maximum recycled contents (RCs) and recycling rates (RRs) in an independent U.S. steel sector, and estimates the potential to displace current imports with recycled scrap that is currently destined for landfill, hibernating stocks, or export (LHSE). A U.S. dynamic material flow analysis (1880–2100) is conducted to estimate annual steel consumption and scrap generation. The results are coupled with a linear optimization model that minimizes primary steel demand while satisfying the volumetric and compositional demands of new consumption. The compositional analysis examines only copper content because it is of greatest concern to recyclers. The best estimate is that the maximum independent RR is already constrained by copper contamination. Without interventions, this maximum RR will gradually decline throughout the century. The annual consumption to scrap availability ratio (C2SR) will decrease from around 1.4 today. Concurrently, the maximum RC rises but then plateaus below 75% as the RR falls. This highlights a conflict in the conditions for a circular economy: a C2SR approaching unity is a necessary condition for a high RC but leads to fewer opportunities for scrap contaminant dilution, which decreases the RR. Improved product design for recycling and deployment of scrap refining technologies will be needed to reach higher RCs. In 2017, the mass of U.S. scrap destined for LHSE exceeded direct steel imports. Domestic recycling of scrap exports alone could have displaced 36% of direct steel imports, reducing the U.S. deficit by $5.5 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel R. Cooper & Nicole A. Ryan & Kyle Syndergaard & Yongxian Zhu, 2020. "The potential for material circularity and independence in the U.S. steel sector," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(4), pages 748-762, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:24:y:2020:i:4:p:748-762
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colin A. McMillan & Steven J. Skerlos & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2012. "Evaluation of the Metals Industry's Position on Recycling and its Implications for Environmental Emissions," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 16(3), pages 324-333, June.
    2. Willi Haas & Fridolin Krausmann & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Markus Heinz, 2015. "How Circular is the Global Economy?: An Assessment of Material Flows, Waste Production, and Recycling in the European Union and the World in 2005," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(5), pages 765-777, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Grafström & Gregory Poelzer & Jens Pettersson, 2026. "Barriers to circularity in the metals industry: an analytical framework of feedback and lock-in effects," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 39(1), pages 193-205, March.
    2. Joris Baars & Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar & Oliver Heidrich, 2022. "Quo vadis MFA? Integrated material flow analysis to support material efficiency," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1487-1503, August.
    3. Daryna Panasiuk & Ichiro Daigo & Takeo Hoshino & Hideo Hayashi & Eiji Yamasue & Duc Huy Tran & Benjamin Sprecher & Feng Shi & Volodymyr Shatokha, 2022. "International comparison of impurities mixing and accumulation in steel scrap," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 1040-1050, June.
    4. Pothen, Frank & Hundt, Carolin, 2024. "European post-consumer steel scrap in 2050: A review of estimates and modeling assumptions," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2024/1, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    5. Anthony Halog & Sandra Anieke, 2021. "A Review of Circular Economy Studies in Developed Countries and Its Potential Adoption in Developing Countries," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 209-230, June.
    6. repec:zbw:fhjwws:300853 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jan Streeck & Quirin Dammerer & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Fridolin Krausmann, 2021. "The role of socio‐economic material stocks for natural resource use in the United States of America from 1870 to 2100," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1486-1502, December.
    8. Taichi Suzuki & Ichiro Daigo, 2024. "Recycled Content for Metals with Refined Classification of Metal Scrap: Micro-Level Circularity Indicator in Accordance with Macro-Level System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-13, August.
    9. Liz Wachs & Colin McMillan & Gale Boyd & Matt Doolin, 2022. "Exploring New Ways to Classify Industries for Energy Analysis and Modeling," Working Papers 22-49, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    10. Shrouk Gharib & Osama Moselhi, 2025. "A Conceptual Framework for Enabling Structural Steel Reuse Utilizing Circular Economy in Modular Construction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-28, October.
    11. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2021. "A Scenario Analysis of the Potential Effects of Decarbonization on the Profitability of the Energy-Intensive and Natural-Resource-Based Industries," Working Papers 2021:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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