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Real Rates of Return in Electricity Supply: New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria

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  • PETER L. SWAN

Abstract

This paper uses a newly developed economic return model to estimate the real (inflation adjusted) costs of supply, and rates of return, for the electricity systems in three States over very long time periods. It is shown that because of a combination of public ownership and the use of historical cost accounts, the real return on capital tends to fall with the onset of rapid inflation such as occurred in the mid 1970s In NSW in particular the rapid growth in demand for electricity in the 1970s due to falling real electricity prices and considerable increases in other energy prices has given rise to a major investment program and rapidly developing excess capacity. Higher real electricity prices in the 1980s, combined with the economic slump of 1982, resulted in low or negative growth rates in demand Much of the boom I bust mentality evident in all three States may have been avoided or ameliorated had the electrical supply authorities been required to earn even a very modest real rate of return of (say) 4 or more per cent p.a. which is considerably below the (pre‐tax) return earned in the corporate sector.

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  • Peter L. Swan, 1990. "Real Rates of Return in Electricity Supply: New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(2), pages 93-109, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:66:y:1990:i:2:p:93-109
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1990.tb01711.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter L. Swan, 1978. "The Mathews Report on Business Taxation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 54(1), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Peter L. Swan, 1983. "The Marginal Cost of Base‐Load Power: An Application to Alcoa's Portland Smelter," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(4), pages 332-344, December.
    3. Peter L. Swan, 1989. "Corporatisation, Privatisation And The Regulatory Framework For The Electricity Sector," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 8(3), pages 55-69, September.
    4. Jeff Bateson & Peter L. Swan, 1989. "Economies of Scale and Utilization: An Analysis of the Multi‐Plant Generation Costs of the Electricity Commission of New South Wales, 1970/71–1984/85," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 65(4), pages 329-344, December.
    5. Fisher, Franklin M & McGowan, John J, 1983. "On the Misuse of Accounting Rates of Return to Infer Monopoly Profits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 82-97, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Domberger & John Piggott, 1986. "Privatization Policies and Public Enterprise: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(2), pages 145-162, June.
    2. Nigel Dews & John Hawkins & Tracey Horton, 1992. "Measuring the Cost of Capital in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9205, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. John Zeitsch & Denis Lawrence & John Salerian, 1994. "Comparing Like with Like in Productivity Studies: Apples, Oranges and Electricity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 162-170, June.
    4. Jeff Bateson & Peter L. Swan, 1989. "Economies of Scale and Utilization: An Analysis of the Multi‐Plant Generation Costs of the Electricity Commission of New South Wales, 1970/71–1984/85," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 65(4), pages 329-344, December.

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