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Measuring Uncertainty for New Zealand Using Data‐Rich Approach

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  • Trung Duc Tran
  • Tugrul Vehbi
  • Benjamin Wong

Abstract

This paper develops two state‐of‐the‐art uncertainty indices for New Zealand by exploiting two separate data‐rich environments. The first index follows the methodology outlined in Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015) to construct an estimate of uncertainty based on a large New Zealand macro dataset. The second index is constructed based on freely accessible and real time Google Trends data to provide a real‐time and freely‐accessible measure of uncertainty as in Castelnuovo and Tran (2017) and Shields and Tran (2018). Both indices do a reasonable job measuring uncertainty in New Zealand. VAR evidence documents significant impacts of uncertainty shocks on GDP in New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Trung Duc Tran & Tugrul Vehbi & Benjamin Wong, 2019. "Measuring Uncertainty for New Zealand Using Data‐Rich Approach," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 344-352, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:52:y:2019:i:3:p:344-352
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12339
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    2. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.

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