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The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lee A. Smales
  • Henk Berkman

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="acfi12107-abs-0001"> Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry-level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee A. Smales & Henk Berkman, 2016. "The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 545-575, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:56:y:2016:i:2:p:545-575
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/acfi.2016.56.issue-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ji (George) Wu & Jian Zhang & Yiwen Wu & Dongmin Kong, 2020. "When to go abroad: economic policy uncertainty and Chinese firms’ overseas investment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1435-1470, June.
    2. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Rowland, Racquel, 2016. "The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns," MPRA Paper 107982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Angosto-Fernández Pedro Luis & Ferrández-Serrano Victoria, 2022. "World capital markets facing the first wave of COVID-19: Traditional event study versus sensitivity to new cases," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 8(4), pages 5-38, December.
    4. Hamish Greenop‐Roberts, 2022. "Forecasting Federal Elections: New Data From 2010–2019 and a Discussion of Alternative and Emerging Methods," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 25-39, March.
    5. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Bai, Hengyu & Wu, Ji, 2020. "Investor sentiment and the economic policy uncertainty premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Lee A. Smales, 2017. "“Brexit”: A Case Study in the Relationship Between Political and Financial Market Uncertainty," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 451-459, September.
    7. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Tran, Vuong Thao & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2021. "State-level politics: Do they influence corporate investment decisions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Jianyu Zeng & Teng Zhong & Fan He, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate inventory holdings: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1727-1757, June.
    10. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Pedro L. Angosto‐Fernández & Victoria Ferrández‐Serrano, 2022. "Independence day: Political risk and cross‐sectional determinants of firm exposure after the Catalan crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4318-4335, October.
    12. Li, Xiao-Ming & Peng, Lu, 2017. "US economic policy uncertainty and co-movements between Chinese and US stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.

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